Global, regional and national trends in burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease from 2000 to 2021 and the prediction for 2030.

AimsTo estimate the global burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) by age, gender and socioeconomic status from 2000 to 2021, and make a prediction until 2030.MethodsData were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021. The burden of COPD, referred to absolute numbers of COPD case and age-standardized rates (ASRs) per 100,000 individuals per year. The temporal trends from 2000 to 2021 were examined using Joinpoint models. Bayesian age-period-cohort models were introduced to project the burden until 2030. Finally, a decomposition analysis was conducted to reveal the contributions of aging, population growth and epidemiological changes to trends in COPD burden.ResultsThe crude numbers of incident cases, prevalent cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for COPD remained increasing from 2000 to 2021, and until 2030, worldwide. ASRs of incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs were in decreasing trends, and would continue to decline until 2030. Additionally, in 2021, the ASR of COPD burden was higher in males than females, while the age-specific rate increased with age. The disease burden varied across different regions, with a high burden in low development-level regions. The increasing burden of COPD was primarily driven by rapid aging and population growth.ConclusionsThe global ASRs of COPD burden would remain declining, but the crude burden would continue to increase until 2030. This study has public health implications for population-based interventions against COPD with consideration of residents' age, gender and residing area as well as economic status.