Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41799380›Full record

ArticleEnvironmental research letters : ERL [Web site]2026

Irrigation constraints shape the global potential for multiple cropping expansion on existing cropland.

Felicitas D Beier, Jens Heinke, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Kristine Karstens, Sebastian Ostberg, David Meng-Chuen Chen, David Hötten, Pascal Sauer, Gabriel Abrahão and 3 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site], 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Felicitas D BeierPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8725-7663
Jens HeinkePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5256-0024
Benjamin Leon BodirskyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8242-6712
Jan Philipp DietrichPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4309-6431
Kristine KarstensPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5860-9789
Sebastian OstbergPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2368-7015
David Meng-Chuen ChenPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5939-9093
David HöttenPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0004-1065-6799
Pascal SauerPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6856-8239
Gabriel AbrahãoPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0336-6246
Hermann Lotze-CampenPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0003-5508
Alexander PoppPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9500-1986
Christoph MüllerPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9491-3550

Funding

Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Multiple cropping increases land productivity by allowing multiple harvests per year, offering production gains without cropland expansion. Irrigation is especially critical in the seasonally dry tropics, enabling multiple cropping where otherwise only a single rainfed cycle would be feasible. Estimates of the current state of multiple cropping and the multiple cropping expansion potential without changes in irrigation patterns exist, but the multiple cropping expansion potential through irrigation expansion has not yet been assessed at the global scale. Here, we estimate multiple cropping expansion potentials on existing cropland considering the interaction with irrigation and local water availability constraints to determine how much cropland area can be managed in multiple cropping systems and the associated increases in annual yields and crop production. We find that, under current climatic conditions, there is considerable global biophysical potential to expand multiple cropping on existing cropland, particularly when also expanding irrigation. Total global crop production could increase by 28% (from 4 200 mio. t DM to 5 400 mio. t DM). This gain stems from nearly quadrupling the area under rainfed multiple cropping, more than doubling multiple cropping area within already irrigated lands, and expanding irrigation into areas where it facilitates another growing season. Our study reveals a considerable multiple cropping expansion potential on existing cropland that-when tapped-could contribute to averting further cropland expansion to meet future demand for agricultural outputs. Local irrigation water availability constrains the irrigation-enabled multiple cropping potential, implying that the interaction of multiple cropping and irrigation is crucial to consider in comprehensive land and water assessments that account for biophysical and socio-economic constraints, sustainability criteria, and land competition under future global change.

Indexed as

croplandglobalirrigationland usemultiple croppingwater availability

Identifiers

PMID41799380
PMCPMC12965323

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.