Patterns and Predictors of Children's Musical Engagement From an Aotearoa NZ Longitudinal Cohort.

In this article, we investigate patterns of children's musical engagement across childhood and early adolescence in Aotearoa New Zealand to identify key factors that predict sustained participation in musical activities outside formal education. Using data from multiple waves of the Growing Up in New Zealand longitudinal cohort study, children's musical engagement was assessed across five activity domains: singing, listening to music, watching videos (including music), music activity participation, and attending music events. Engagement in each domain was categorised into four participation levels: None, Short-term, Repeated, and Sustained. Longitudinal patterns were assessed with Sankey plots, and ordinal regression was used to predict engagement levels from socioeconomic variables, including maternal education, household structure, household income, gender, ethnicity, disability status, area-level deprivation, and rurality. Our results show that engagement patterns shifted with age, with family singing decreasing and individualised music listening and video watching increasing over time. Gender, ethnicity, and socioeconomic variables were key predictors of sustained engagement across activity domains. Children's musical engagement trajectories varied widely and were influenced by both individual characteristics and modifiable contextual factors. These findings highlight the need to consider equity of access and cultural relevance when supporting musical participation across childhood in New Zealand.