Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41785281›Full record

ArticlePloS one2026

Cost-effectiveness analysis of artificial intelligence-assisted risk stratification of indeterminate pulmonary nodules.

Caroline M Godfrey, Ashley A Leech, Kevin C McGann, Jinyi Zhu, Hannah N Marmor, Sophia Pena, Lyndsey C Pickup, Fabien Maldonado, Evan C Osmundson, Stacie B Dusetzina and 2 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Caroline M GodfreyDepartment of Surgery, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, United States of America.
Ashley A LeechDepartment of Health Policy, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, Tennessee, United States of America.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6795-929X
Kevin C McGannDepartment of Surgery, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, United States of America.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0005-3575-6873
Jinyi ZhuDepartment of Health Policy, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, Tennessee, United States of America.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8169-5956
Hannah N MarmorDepartment of Thoracic Surgery, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, United States of America.
Sophia PenaDepartment of Thoracic Surgery, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, United States of America.
Lyndsey C PickupOptellum Ltd, Oxford, United Kingdom.
Fabien MaldonadoDivision of Allergy, Pulmonary, and Critical Care Medicine, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, United States of America.
Evan C OsmundsonDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, United States of America.
Stacie B DusetzinaDepartment of Health Policy, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, Tennessee, United States of America.
Eric L GroganDepartment of Thoracic Surgery, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, United States of America.
Stephen A DeppenDepartment of Thoracic Surgery, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, United States of America.

Funding

Validation of Biomarkers of Risk for the Early Detection of Lung CancerU01CA152662 · NCI · VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER · PI DEPPEN, STEPHEN, GROGAN, ERIC L · 2010 to 2025
$12.8M
Clinical Utility of Biomarkers Driven Management of Indeterminate Pulmonary NodulesR01CA252964 · NCI · VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER · PI Eric L Grogan, Alexander Mark Kaizer · 2021 to 2026
$3.3M
NCI NIH HHS R01 CA252964NCI NIH HHS U01 CA152662
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundArtificial intelligence-based radiomic approaches have been shown to accurately evaluate indeterminate pulmonary nodules. With the expansion of lung cancer screening and utilization of computed tomography imaging, indeterminate pulmonary nodules requiring diagnostic evaluation are increasingly common. Accurate non-invasive characterization may reduce time to cancer diagnosis and decrease invasive procedures for benign disease, but the cost-effectiveness of AI-based methods has not been quantified. We sought to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of AI-assisted clinician evaluation compared to clinician evaluation alone for the cancer risk stratification of patients with indeterminate pulmonary nodules.

methodsWe constructed a decision model assuming guideline-based care from a payer perspective with a lifetime horizon. The base case is a 1.1 cm incidentally discovered IPN in a 60-year-old operative candidate in a clinical population with a 65% malignancy prevalence. Cost per life-year gained (LYG) was the primary outcome. We conducted deterministic sensitivity analyses on all parameters and performed a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Given clinical variability of malignancy prevalence, we assessed the malignancy prevalence threshold at which utilization of AI would be cost-effective.

resultsAI-supported clinician risk stratification resulted in an increase of 0.03 life years compared to clinician alone. With a 65% malignancy prevalence, AI was cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $4,485/LYG. When the malignancy prevalence was < 5%, the ICER for AI support exceeded a standard willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/LYG.

conclusionsIn clinical settings with a pre-test probability of malignancy exceeding 5%, AI-supported IPN risk stratification is cost-effective compared to clinician assessment alone.

Indexed as

Artificial IntelligenceCost-Benefit AnalysisCost-Effectiveness AnalysisLung NeoplasmsMultiple Pulmonary NodulesSolitary Pulmonary NoduleHumansMiddle AgedRisk AssessmentTomography, X-Ray Computed

Identifiers

PMID41785281
PMCPMC12962482

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.