Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41781727›Full record

Observational studyEuropean radiology2026

Development of coronary artery disease in patients with initially normal coronary arteries in the SCOT-HEART trial.

Lia Avigdor, Steven E Williams, Alan Ranieri Guimaraes, Kayleigh Wood, Jenny Ramsay, Phyo H Khaing, Krystalina Sim, Giles Roditi, Nicholas L Mills, Marc R Dweck and 2 more

Abstract readObservational Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in European radiology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Lia AvigdorBritish Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Steven E WilliamsBritish Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Alan Ranieri GuimaraesBritish Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Kayleigh WoodBritish Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Jenny RamsayBritish Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Phyo H KhaingBritish Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Krystalina SimBritish Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Giles RoditiUniversity of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
Nicholas L MillsBritish Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Marc R DweckBritish Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
David E NewbyBritish Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Michelle C WilliamsBritish Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK. michelle.williams@ed.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3556-2428

Funding

Edinburgh and Lothian's Health Foundation Trust and the Heart Diseases Research Fund FS/ICRF/20/26002, CH/09/002, FS/11/014, FS/16/14/32023, RG/20/10/34966, RE/24/130012, RG/F/22/110093, CS/18/4/34074, FS/14/78/31020, CH/F/21/90010The Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates CZH/4/588
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesIndividuals with normal coronary arteries may develop coronary artery disease (CAD). Coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography (CCTA) offers a non-invasive method to assess the development of CAD. MATERIALS AND

methodsIn a post-hoc observational study of the Scottish Computed Tomography of the HEART (SCOT-HEART) trial, we identified patients with normal coronary arteries on initial CCTA who subsequently underwent clinically indicated CT. Images were visually assessed for the presence, severity, and type of CAD.

resultsNormal coronary arteries on baseline CCTA were present in 524 patients (mean age 53 ± 10 years, 38% male). After a median of 9.3 (Interquartile range, IQR: 9.3-10.8) years, 31 (6%) underwent repeat CCTA and 162 (31%) underwent chest CT. There were no differences in baseline clinical characteristics amongst those who did or did not have repeat CCTA, but those with subsequent chest CT were older and had higher cardiovascular risk scores. CAD was identified on 48% (n = 15) of CCTA and 25% (n = 41) of chest CT. Median time to CT scan on which CAD was identified was 8.1 (IQR: 6.9-9.7) years. There was no difference in all-cause mortality or combined CAD death or non-fatal myocardial infarction in patients who had CAD identified on subsequent CT. However, they were more likely to undergo invasive coronary angiography (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 4.94, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.95, 12.51; p < 0.001) and revascularization (aHR 19.99, 95% CI: 1.69, 237.1; p = 0.018), adjusted for age and sex.

conclusionOne third of patients with previously normal CCTA will develop CAD on clinically indicated CT imaging over a 10-year period. KEY POINTS: Question In patients with normal coronary arteries on coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), the risk of developing CAD in the future is uncertain. Findings Among 524 patients with normal coronaries, CAD was identified on 48% of CCTA and 25% of chest CT during 10 years of follow-up. Clinical relevance A substantial proportion of patients with initially normal coronary arteries on CCTA later develop CAD, highlighting the need for clinicians to be alert for the development of new CAD in patients with initially normal coronary arteries.

Indexed as

Computed Tomography AngiographyCoronary AngiographyCoronary Artery DiseaseCoronary VesselsFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedRisk FactorsScotlandAtherosclerosisComputed tomography angiographyCoronary artery diseaseMultidetector computed tomography

Identifiers

PMID41781727
PMCPMC13282284

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.