Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41779806›Full record

ArticlePLoS computational biology2026

Quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamics of the first two epidemic waves of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States.

Rafael Lopes, Yu Lan, Melanie H Chitwood, Fayette Klaassen, Joshua A Salomon, Nicolas A Menzies, Joshua L Warren, Nathan D Grubaugh, Ted Cohen, Nicole A Swartwood

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PLoS computational biology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Rafael LopesDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9416-6145
Yu LanDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America.
Melanie H ChitwoodDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America.
Fayette KlaassenDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.
Joshua A SalomonDepartment of Health Policy, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America.
Nicolas A MenziesDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.
Joshua L WarrenPublic Health Modeling Unit, Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6274-6970
Nathan D GrubaughDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America.
Ted CohenDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America.
Nicole A SwartwoodDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4116-9243

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 infection rates displayed strikingly organized patterns of temporal and spatial spread as new variants were introduced and subsequently transmitted within the United States. While these spatio-temporal "waves" of infection have been described previously, attempts to quantify the speed and extent of these waves have been limited. Here, we estimate and compare the wavefront speed and spatial expansion of the first two major infection waves in the United States, illustrating these dynamics through detailed visualizations. Our findings reveal that the origins of these waves coincide with large gatherings and the relaxation of masking mandates. Notably, we found that the second wave spread more rapidly than the first, possibly driven by multiple introduction events. These analyses highlight regional heterogeneity in epidemic dynamics and underscore the importance of localized public health measures in mitigating ongoing outbreaks.

Indexed as

COVID-19HumansSARS-CoV-2Spatio-Temporal AnalysisUnited States

Identifiers

PMID41779806
PMCPMC12959703

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.