ArticleJournal of gynecologic oncology2026
Trends and future projections of endometrial cancer burden attributable to high BMI in China: an age-period-cohort analysis based on 1990-2021 data.
Article in Journal of gynecologic oncology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
objectiveResearch on endometrial cancer burden associated with high body mass index (BMI) in China remains limited. This study analyzes the characteristics of high BMI-related endometrial cancer burden in China from 1990 to 2035.
methodsJoinpoint regression was used to analyze trends in age-standardized mortality rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). An annual percentage change (APC) model was utilized to analyze the effects of these 3 factors on disease burden. The disease burden trends from 2022 to 2035 were predicted using the Bayesian APC model and the Nordpred model.
resultsFrom 1990 to 2021, the number of endometrial cancer deaths attributable to high BMI in China increased by 196.78%, while DALYs rose by 179.31%. Age-standardized mortality and DALY rates increased by 19.46% and 20.86%, respectively, with average APCs of 0.56 (95% confidence interval [CI]=0.42 to 0.70) and 0.64 (95% CI=0.45 to 0.83). APC analysis revealed an initial increase followed by a decrease in mortality risk and DALYs with advancing age, an N-shaped temporal trend, and reduced burden among later birth cohorts. The Bayesian APC model projected that by 2035, the number of deaths and DALYs would increase by 158.10% and 126.89%, respectively, compared to 2021. A sensitivity analysis using the Nordpred model confirmed this upward trend.
conclusionChina faces a growing disease burden from endometrial cancer attributable to high BMI, with projections indicating a continued increase. These findings underscore the critical need for public health interventions focused on BMI management to prevent endometrial cancer, particularly among high-risk populations.
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