Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41772176›Full record

ArticleNature biomedical engineering2026

Confounding factors and biases abound when predicting molecular biomarkers from histological images.

Muhammad Dawood, Kim Branson, Sabine Tejpar, Nasir Rajpoot, Fayyaz Ul Amir Afsar Minhas

Abstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in Nature biomedical engineering, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Muhammad DawoodPredictive Systems in Biomedicine Lab, Department of Computer Science, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK. imuhdawood@gmail.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5358-9478
Kim BransonArtificial Intelligence and Machine Learning, GSK, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Sabine TejparDigestive Oncology, Department of Oncology, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3281-8643
Nasir RajpootTissue Image Analytics Centre, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4706-1308
Fayyaz Ul Amir Afsar MinhasPredictive Systems in Biomedicine Lab, Department of Computer Science, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK. Fayyaz.Minhas@warwick.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9129-1189

Funding

RCUK | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) EP/W02909X/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Deep learning models that infer clinically relevant biomarker status from tissue images are being explored as rapid and low-cost alternatives to molecular testing. Here we show, through statistical analysis across multiple cancer types, datasets and modelling approaches, that the datasets used to train these models contain strong dependencies between biomarkers and clinicopathological features, which prevent models from isolating the effect of a single biomarker and lead them to learn confounded signals. Consequently, their prediction accuracy varies substantially with the status of codependent biomarkers and clinicopathological variables, and for several biomarkers, the gain over what a pathologist can already infer from routine histopathological features, such as grade, remains modest. These findings indicate that current approaches are not yet suitable as substitutes for molecular testing but can support triage or complementary decision-making with caution. Unconfounded biomarker prediction will require models that learn causal rather than correlational relationships between biomarkers and tissue morphology.

Identifiers

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.