Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41766610›Full record

ArticleThe Journal of infectious diseases2026

2024-2025 COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine Effectiveness Against Severe Disease.

Iromi Jayawardena, Natalie E Dean, Brian Witrick, Alain H Litwin, Lior Rennert

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The Journal of infectious diseases, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Iromi JayawardenaDepartment of Public Health Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, South Carolina, USA.ORCID 0009-0007-9905-9510
Natalie E DeanDepartment of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Brian WitrickDepartment of Public Health Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, South Carolina, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-3800-8695
Alain H LitwinDepartment of Medicine, Prisma Health-Upstate, Greenville, South Carolina, USA.
Lior RennertDepartment of Public Health Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, South Carolina, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5275-7273

Funding

Developing a dynamic modeling framework for surveillance, prediction, and real-time resource allocation to reduce health disparities during Covid-19 and future pandemicsR01LM014193 · NLM · CLEMSON UNIVERSITY · PI Lior Rennert · 2023 to 2026
$2.5M
Data-Driven Approaches for Opioid Use Disorder Treatment, Recovery, and Overdose Prevention in Rural Communities via Mobile Health Clinics and Peer Support ServicesR33DA059892 · NIDA · CLEMSON UNIVERSITY · PI Alain Harris Litwin, Lior Rennert · 2025 to 2026
$2.3M
Data-Driven Approaches for Opioid Use Disorder Treatment, Recovery, and Overdose Prevention in Rural Communities via Mobile Health Clinics and Peer Support ServicesR61DA059892 · NIDA · CLEMSON UNIVERSITY · PI LITWIN, ALAIN HARRIS, RENNERT, LIOR · 2023 to 2023
$943k
CDC CFA NU38FT000001CDC CFA NU38FT000011NIDA NIH HHS R33 DA059892NIDA NIH HHS R61 DA059892NIH/NLM R01LM014193NLM NIH HHS R01 LM014193
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThis study evaluated the effectiveness of the 2024-2025 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine against COVID-19 emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations.

methodsUsing electronic health records from a large South Carolina health system, we emulated a target trial comparing adults aged 18 years and older who did and did not receive the 2024-2025 COVID-19 mRNA vaccine. Vaccinated individuals during September 1, 2024-March 15, 2025, were risk-set matched 1:2 to unvaccinated individuals on demographic and clinical covariates using propensity score matching. Primary outcomes were time to COVID-19 ED or more severe care and time to hospitalization through April 16, 2025, analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models.

resultsThe final matched cohort included 30,080 individuals, including 10,029 vaccinated participants. Mean age was 65.5 years, 36.5% male, 66.7% Caucasian; 85.6% had a pre-existing condition. Vaccine effectiveness against ED or more severe care was 41.3% (95% CI, 17.2%-58.4%) and 46.1% (95% CI, 13.6%-66.3%) against hospitalization.

conclusionsThe 2024-2025 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine provided moderate protection against COVID-19 ED visits and hospitalizations among an older population with a high burden of pre-existing conditions, supporting continued efforts to improve vaccine uptake in higher-risk adults.

Indexed as

COVID-19COVID-19 VaccinesSARS-CoV-2Vaccine EfficacyAdultAgedEmergency Room VisitsEmergency Service, HospitalFemaleHospitalizationHumansMaleMiddle AgedSouth CarolinaVaccinationVaccines, SyntheticCOVID-19 VaccinesVaccines, SyntheticCOVID-19mRNA vaccinetarget trial emulationvaccine effectiveness

Identifiers

PMID41766610
PMCPMC13431776

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.