Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41766027›Full record

ArticleCommunications medicine2026

Modelling of onchocerciasis-associated skin and ocular disease and the impact of ivermectin treatment.

Matthew A Dixon, Aditya Ramani, Martin Walker, Jacob N Stapley, Michele E Murdoch, Ian E Murdoch, Gladys A Ozoh, Jonathan F Mosser, Maria-Gloria Basáñez

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In one paragraph

Article in Communications medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Matthew A Dixon *MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK. m.dixon15@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1710-6237
Aditya Ramani *MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0006-2120-4629
Martin WalkerMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8714-5365
Jacob N StapleyMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Michele E MurdochDepartment of Dermatology, West Herts Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, Watford, Hertfordshire, UK.
Ian E MurdochInternational Centre for Eye Health, Institute of Ophthalmology, London, UK.
Gladys A OzohDermatology Division, University of Nigeria Teaching Hospital, Ituku Ozala, Enugu State, Nigeria.
Jonathan F MosserInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Hans Rosling Center for Population Health, Seattle, WA, USA.
Maria-Gloria BasáñezMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK. m.basanez@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5031-3361

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundDespite decades of control interventions in sub-Saharan Africa, morbidity associated with Onchocerca volvulus infection still exerts a substantial burden of disease, arising from cutaneous, ocular and neurological manifestations.

methodsWe developed and integrated a morbidity sub-model into our previously published individual-based, stochastic transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM, including both reversible (severe itch, reactive skin disease (RSD)), and irreversible (skin atrophy, depigmentation, hanging groin) cutaneous sequelae, and eye disease (blindness, visual impairment). We modelled the relationship between onchocerciasis skin disease (OSD) and infection prevalence using pre-intervention data from northern Nigeria, and between onchocerciasis ocular disease (OOD) and infection intensity using data from the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa. We simulated the impact of ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) upon OSD and OOD using data from Cameroon, Central African Republic, Nigeria, Sudan and Uganda.

resultsModelled age-specific OSD and OOD prevalence at baseline align well with reported prevalence estimates across the simulated range of endemicity levels but underestimate irreversible OSD in older age groups. Under MDA, we capture trends in infection prevalence, severe itch and irreversible OSD but underestimate reductions in RSD and blindness prevalence.

conclusionsIntegrating morbidity outcomes into transmission dynamics modelling will help improve estimates of onchocerciasis disease burden and inform the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of current and alternative interventions.

Identifiers

PMID41766027
PMCPMC13066558

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.