Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41764871›Full record

ArticleThe journal of prevention of Alzheimer's disease2026

Predicting cognitive decline: Comparative analysis of ANU-ADRI, CAIDE, CogDrisk, LIBRA, LIBRA2, UKBDRS and Lancet based dementia risk scores in the HUNT study.

Josephine Stubs, Geir Selbæk, Bjørn Heine Strand, Gill Livingston, Kaarin J Anstey, Kay Deckers, Mika Kivimäki, Steinar Krokstad, Fiona E Mathews, Ellen Melbye Langballe

Abstract readComparative Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The journal of prevention of Alzheimer's disease, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Josephine StubsNorwegian National Centre for Ageing and Health, Vestfold Hospital Trust, Tønsberg, Aldring og helse, 3103 Tønsberg, Norway; Department of Geriatric Medicine, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Kirkeveien 166, 0450 Oslo, Norway; Faculty of Medicine, Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, Kirkeveien 166, 0450 Oslo, Norway. Electronic address: josephine.stuebs@aldringoghelse.no.
Geir SelbækNorwegian National Centre for Ageing and Health, Vestfold Hospital Trust, Tønsberg, Aldring og helse, 3103 Tønsberg, Norway; Department of Geriatric Medicine, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Kirkeveien 166, 0450 Oslo, Norway; Faculty of Medicine, Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, Kirkeveien 166, 0450 Oslo, Norway.
Bjørn Heine StrandNorwegian National Centre for Ageing and Health, Vestfold Hospital Trust, Tønsberg, Aldring og helse, 3103 Tønsberg, Norway; Department of Geriatric Medicine, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Kirkeveien 166, 0450 Oslo, Norway; Department of Physical Health and Ageing, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway.
Gill LivingstonDivision of Psychiatry, 149 Tottenham Court Rd, University College London, London, W1W 7EJ, UK; North London NHS Foundation Trust, St Pancras Hospital, London, NW1 0PE, UK.
Kaarin J AnsteySchool of Psychology, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; Neuroscience Research Australia, Sydney, Australia; UNSW Ageing Futures Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.
Kay DeckersAlzheimer Centrum Limburg, Department of Psychiatry and Neuropsychology, Mental Health and Neuroscience Research Institute (MHeNs), Maastricht University, Dr. Tanslaan 12, 6229 ET, Maastricht, the Netherlands.
Mika KivimäkiDivision of Psychiatry, 149 Tottenham Court Rd, University College London, London, W1W 7EJ, UK; Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Helsinki, Tukholmankatu 8 B, FI-00014, Finland.
Steinar KrokstadDepartment of Public Health and Nursing, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, HUNT Research Centre, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway; Levanger Hospital, Nord-Trøndelag Hospital Trust, Levanger, Norway.
Fiona E MathewsInstitute for Clinical and Applied Health Research, University of Hull, Cottingham Road, Hull, HU6 7RX, UK.
Ellen Melbye LangballeNorwegian National Centre for Ageing and Health, Vestfold Hospital Trust, Tønsberg, Aldring og helse, 3103 Tønsberg, Norway; Department of Geriatric Medicine, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Kirkeveien 166, 0450 Oslo, Norway.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo evaluate and compare the predictive value of eight dementia risk scores for late-life cognitive function and cognitive decline; ANU-ADRI, CAIDE, CogDrisk, LIBRA, LIBRA2, UKBDRS(-APOE), and a Lancet commission-based risk score.

methodsUsing Norwegian Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT) data, we calculated risk scores from lifestyle and health data of 7221 dementia-free participants (mean age: 76.8 years, 54.1% female) collected in HUNT3 (2006-2008). Cognitive function was assessed using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment scale (MoCA) 11 years later in HUNT4 70+, and reassessed in 4716 participants 4 years thereafter. Associations between continuous risk scores or risk score tertiles, cognition and cognitive decline were examined using linear mixed-effects models. Logistic regression models were used to test associations between risk scores and a ≥ 3-point decline in MoCA scores.

resultsAll risk scores were significantly associated with cognitive function and cognitive decline. Associations with cognitive function ranged from UKBDRS β

conclusionRisk scores captured meaningful gradients in cognition and decline but offered limited discriminatory accuracy beyond demographics, supporting their use for prevention-oriented risk profiling rather than prediction.

Indexed as

Cognitive DysfunctionDementiaAgedAged, 80 and overFemaleHumansMental Status and Dementia TestsNorwayPredictive Value of TestsRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsAgingCognitive declineDementia risk indexHUNTLifestyle riskModifiable risk factors

Identifiers

PMID41764871
PMCPMC12966730

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.