Analyzing sustainable cotton production in Türkiye through the water energy carbon nexus framework.

The Water-Energy-Carbon (WEC) nexus provides an integrated framework for analyzing interdependent resource demands in agriculture. This study employs a comprehensive WEC-based approach to evaluate sustainable cotton production in Türkiye, focusing on water use (blue and green), energy consumption, and associated carbon emissions across varying land sizes and future renewable energy scenarios. A composite WEC Index was constructed to enable scenario comparison, where lower index values indicate improved sustainability performance under the defined normalization scheme. Projections for two periods (until 2040 and 2041–2070) assess the impacts of climate-induced precipitation changes, land expansion, and renewable energy adoption. Results show increasing water and energy demands with enlarged cultivation areas, along with a significant rise in total carbon emissions, particularly beyond 2040. Although national renewable energy targets (15% by 2040, 50% by 2041–2070) contribute to reducing the carbon intensity of energy use, they are insufficient to fully offset emissions under large-scale land expansion scenarios. The study highlights the need for coordinated land-use planning, irrigation efficiency improvements, and renewable energy integration strategies to support sustainable cotton production under future climate constraints.