Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41757067›Full record

ArticlebioRxiv : the preprint server for biology2026

Near real-time data on the human neutralizing antibody landscape to influenza virus as of early 2026 to inform vaccine-strain selection.

Caroline Kikawa, John Huddleston, Sam A Turner, Andrea N Loes, Jiaojiao Liu, Sydney Gang, Tachianna Griffiths, Elizabeth M Drapeau, Benjamin J Cowling, Faith Ho and 14 more

Abstract readPreprint
In one paragraph

Article in bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

24 authors.

Caroline KikawaDivision of Basic Sciences and Computational Biology Program, Fred Hutch Cancer Center, Seattle, WA.ORCID 0000-0002-8654-5663
John HuddlestonVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutch Cancer Center, Seattle, WA.ORCID 0000-0002-4250-2063
Sam A TurnerCenter for Pathogen Evolution, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Andrea N LoesDivision of Basic Sciences and Computational Biology Program, Fred Hutch Cancer Center, Seattle, WA.ORCID 0000-0002-8659-0149
Jiaojiao LiuDepts of Microbiology and Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.
Sydney GangDepts of Microbiology and Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.
Tachianna GriffithsDepts of Microbiology and Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.
Elizabeth M DrapeauDepts of Microbiology and Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.
Benjamin J CowlingWHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.ORCID 0000-0002-6297-7154
Faith HoWHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.
Nancy H L LeungWHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.ORCID 0000-0001-7314-840X
Janet A EnglundSeattle Children's Research Institute and Department of Pediatrics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA.ORCID 0000-0003-1134-4178
Kristen LacombeSeattle Children's Research Institute and Department of Pediatrics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA.
Shinji WatanabeInfluenza Research Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japan Institute for Health Security, 1-21-1 Toyama Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 162-8655, Japan.
Hideki HasegawaInfluenza Research Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japan Institute for Health Security, 1-21-1 Toyama Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 162-8655, Japan.
Michael BuschVitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, CA.
Marion LanteriVitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, CA.
Mars StoneVitalant Research Institute, San Francisco, CA.
Bryan SpencerAmerican Red Cross, Dedham, MA.
Richard A NeherSwiss Institute of Bioinformatics and Biozentrum, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0003-2525-1407
Derek J SmithCenter for Pathogen Evolution, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-7631-1265
Trevor BedfordVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutch Cancer Center, Seattle, WA.ORCID 0000-0002-4039-5794
Scott E HensleyDepts of Microbiology and Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.
Jesse D BloomDivision of Basic Sciences and Computational Biology Program, Fred Hutch Cancer Center, Seattle, WA.ORCID 0000-0003-1267-3408

Funding

Translational Bioimaging Core Shared ResourceP30CA015704 · NCI · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI Eric Collisson · 1985 to 2026
$296.4M
NIAID Centers of Excellence for Influenza Research and Response: Universal Influenza Vaccine Research Activities75N93021C00014 · NIAID · ICAHN SCHOOL OF MEDICINE AT MOUNT SINAI · PI GARCIA-SASTRE, ADOLFO · 2021 to 2025
$62.6M
NIAID Centers of Excellence for Influenza Research and Response: Universal Influenza Vaccine Research Activities75N93021C00015 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI HENSLEY, SCOTT · 2021 to 2025
$50.7M
Integrating measurements of immune escape and in vitro replication with computational models to understand and predict the antigenic evolution of seasonal A/H3N2 influenza virusesR01AI165818 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE · PI Derek James Smith · 2022 to 2026
$2.6M
High-Performance Compute Cluster for Comprehensive Cancer and Infectious Diseases ResearchS10OD028685 · OD · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI BRADLEY, PHILIP · 2020 to 2020
$2.0M
FHCRC High-Performance Computing ClusterS10OD020069 · OD · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI KOOPERBERG, CHARLES L · 2015 to 2015
$600k
Next-generation sequencing-based neutralization assays to forecast influenza virus clade growth.F30AI186284 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI Caroline Sakura Kikawa · 2025 to 2026
$92k
NCI NIH HHS P30 CA015704NIAID NIH HHS F30 AI186284NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI165818NIH HHS 75N93021C00014NIH HHS 75N93021C00015NIH HHS S10 OD020069NIH HHS S10 OD028685
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Twice each year, a decision is made on whether to update the strains included in the seasonal influenza vaccine to better match the most recent circulating viral strains. To characterize the antigenic properties of current seasonal influenza A strains to inform the upcoming decision about which strains to include in the 2026-2027 Northern Hemisphere vaccine, here we perform high-throughput sequencing-based neutralization assays using a library of 57 H3N2 and 34 H1N1 influenza hemagglutinins reflecting the circulating diversity of strains in late 2025 to early 2026. We assay this library against 302 human sera collected in late 2025. The resulting data set encompasses 27,409 titers, and provides a near real-time portrait of the human neutralizing antibody landscape against influenza virus. We find that many human sera have lower titers against the K subclade of H3N2 and the D.3.1.1 subclade of H1N1; these subclades have recently become dominant among their respective subtypes. Our measurements also reveal variability in titers to different subvariants within the K subclade of H3N2, with titers especially low to subclade K strains with additional mutations in antigenic regions D and E. We make all our data and accompanying visualizations publicly available to enable their use in vaccine-strain selection and analyses of influenza evolution and immunity.

Identifiers

PMID41757067
PMCPMC12934776

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.