Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41754562›Full record

ArticleViruses2026

Social Determinants and Outbreak Dynamics of the 2025 Measles Epidemic in Mexico: A Nationwide Analysis of Linked Surveillance Data.

Judith Carolina De Arcos-Jiménez, Pedro Martínez-Ayala, Oscar Francisco Fernández-Diaz, Sergio Sánchez-Enríquez, Patricia Noemi Vargas-Becerra, Ana María López-Yáñez, Roberto Damian-Negrete, Sofía Gutierrez-Perez, Jaime Briseno-Ramírez

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Viruses, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Judith Carolina De Arcos-JiménezDivisión Salud, Centro Universitario de Tlajomulco, Universidad de Guadalajara, Tlajomulco de Zuñiga 45641, Mexico.
Pedro Martínez-AyalaDivisión Salud, Centro Universitario de Tlajomulco, Universidad de Guadalajara, Tlajomulco de Zuñiga 45641, Mexico.ORCID 0000-0002-0505-6340
Oscar Francisco Fernández-DiazDivisión Salud, Centro Universitario de Tlajomulco, Universidad de Guadalajara, Tlajomulco de Zuñiga 45641, Mexico.ORCID 0000-0003-4698-5063
Sergio Sánchez-EnríquezDivisión de Ciencias Biomedicas, Centro Universitario de Los Altos, Universidad de Guadalajara, Tepatitlán de Morelos 47600, Mexico.ORCID 0000-0002-6153-3703
Patricia Noemi Vargas-BecerraDivisión Salud, Centro Universitario de Tlajomulco, Universidad de Guadalajara, Tlajomulco de Zuñiga 45641, Mexico.
Ana María López-YáñezDivisión Salud, Centro Universitario de Tlajomulco, Universidad de Guadalajara, Tlajomulco de Zuñiga 45641, Mexico.
Roberto Damian-NegreteDivisión Salud, Centro Universitario de Tlajomulco, Universidad de Guadalajara, Tlajomulco de Zuñiga 45641, Mexico.ORCID 0000-0003-3424-1382
Sofía Gutierrez-PerezComisión Estatal de Derechos Humanos Jalisco, Guadalajara 44600, Mexico.
Jaime Briseno-RamírezDivisión Salud, Centro Universitario de Tlajomulco, Universidad de Guadalajara, Tlajomulco de Zuñiga 45641, Mexico.ORCID 0009-0006-1901-392X

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Measles resurgence threatens elimination achievements in the Americas. We conducted a nationwide analysis of Mexico's 2025-2026 measles outbreak, integrating individual-level surveillance data from the Special Surveillance System for Febrile Exanthematous Diseases with municipal-level social determinants from eight national databases, complemented by molecular surveillance data. We analyzed 6892 confirmed cases using spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I and LISA), effective reproduction number estimation, logistic regression models for municipal case presence, and multivariable logistic regression for risk factors for complications. Cases concentrated in Chihuahua (65.2%), with 47 LISA hot-spot municipalities containing 64.4% of cases. Molecular surveillance confirmed two independent introductions: D8/MVs/Ontario.CAN/47.24 (98.1%), linked to the North American outbreak, and B3 (1.9%) in Oaxaca. Transmission followed a three-stage pattern: introduction through seasonal agricultural worker networks, amplification in undervaccinated communities, and diffusion to marginalized indigenous populations. A dual-model analysis revealed that school non-attendance among children aged 6-14 years may have mediated the effect of very high marginalization on municipal case presence (OR 1.26;

Indexed as

Disease OutbreaksEpidemicsMeaslesSocial Determinants of HealthAdolescentChildChild, PreschoolFemaleHumansInfantMaleMeasles VaccineMeasles virusMexicoRisk FactorsUnvaccinated PersonsMeasles Vaccineindigenous populationsmeaslesmolecular epidemiologyoutbreak investigationsocial determinants of healthspatial analysisvaccine effectiveness

Identifiers

PMID41754562
PMCPMC12944898

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.