Changes in Richness, Abundance, and Occurrence of Beetles in South Korea over Ten Years: Identifier Bias and Selection of Climate Change Indicators.

Climate change is rapidly altering the distribution and abundance of species, with significant impacts on regional ecosystems, including reduced ecosystem services and the loss of biodiversity. Accurately predicting changes in the distribution and abundance of taxa under future climate scenarios is, therefore, crucial. In South Korea, beetle data collected via pitfall traps from approximately 300 forest sites between 2007 and 2009 (30 families, 4 genera, and 150 species) were used to forecast changes in their abundance and distribution under climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. This study evaluated the accuracy of those predictions using data from a subsequent survey conducted between 2017 and 2019. We compared species richness, abundance, changes in abundance (i.e., number of individuals), and occurrence (i.e., number of occupied sites) using data from 273 sites that were surveyed in both the initial (2007-2009) and follow-up (2017-2019) periods. All four parameters were found to be significantly influenced by the identifiers. This identifier bias was attributed to the omission of morphologically similar species in the initial survey or the loss of individuals during the preparation process of dry specimens. As a result, increases in abundance and distribution appear to have been affected by identification errors, whereas decreases more closely reflect actual ecological changes. When the comparison between predicted and observed results was restricted to taxa with reduced abundance and distribution, the number of taxa that matched the predictions was significantly higher than that of those that did not. Based on ease of identification, abundance, and sensitivity to climate change, we selected a set of indicator taxa (four families, two genera, and seven species) for climate change monitoring.