ArticleCommunications medicine2026
Predicting rates of cognitive and functional decline in Alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment.
Article in Communications medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Quantifying generalization error in machine learning prediction of cognitive decline.The journal of prevention of Alzheimer's disease · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe global population of People Living with Dementia (PLWD) is expected to grow rapidly in the coming decades, increasing the need for personalised, generalisable, and scalable prognosis and care planning support. However, current prognostic guidance does not adequately capture the heterogeneity in dementia trajectories, and existing predictive models of dementia progression rely on costly and inaccessible data, limiting their scalability in resource-constrained settings.
methodsUsing clinical assessments, demographic, and medical history data from 153 12-month clinical trajectories collected over three years, two machine learning algorithms were developed to predict 12-month cognitive and functional decline in Alzheimer's Disease (AD) and Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI). Models were externally validated on 741 trajectories from the ADNI cohort. Cognitive and functional decline were estimated using the Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE) and Bristol Activities of Daily Living (BADL).
resultsThe MMSE model achieves a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.84 (95% CI: 1.64-2.04) internally and 2.19 in external validation. The BADL model achieves an MAE of 3.88 (95% CI: 3.46-4.30). Baseline scores on ideational praxis, orientation, and word recall are among the strongest predictors of cognitive decline, while independence in food preparation, finances, and dressing are among the top predictors of functional decline.
conclusionsOur models use only routinely collected and easily accessible data, offering high translational potential. If implemented, our scalable, data-driven prognostic support tool could streamline clinical workflows, support personalised care planning, and provide PLWD and their families with greater clarity and reassurance.
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Registered trials
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