ArticleNature ecology & evolution2026
Long-term warming reduces fish biomass, but heatwaves shift it.
Article in Nature ecology & evolution, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Large fisheries declines linked to compound and extreme climate events.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Range-edge effects of marine heatwaves.Nature ecology & evolution · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Long-term ocean warming, interannual temperature variability and marine heatwaves pose serious but poorly quantified threats to marine species. Here, to quantify and isolate their individual effects, we analysed 702,037 estimates of biomass change across 33,990 fish populations (1,566 species) between 1993 and 2021, covering major Northern Hemisphere basins. Long-term warming was associated with an annual biomass decline of up to 19.8%. However, on shorter timescales, warmer years and marine heatwaves were linked to sharp biomass losses of up to 43.4% in populations at the warm edge of the species' range and biomass increases of up to 176% at the cold edge. Accounting for these edge-dependent 'winners and losers' in response to long- and short-term warming will be essential to avoid overexploiting transient biomass gains. Ultimately, management strategies must plan for the biomass loss expected under continued ocean warming.
Indexed as
Identifiers
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.