ArticleScientific reports2026
Non-monotonic effects and spatial spillovers of urban green space on chronic infectious disease dynamics in China.
Article in Scientific reports, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Rural revitalization, carbon emissions, and infectious disease transmission in China: nonlinear dynamics, spatial spillovers, and moderating effect.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
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Abstract
As global public health faces unprecedented challenges, Urban Green Space (UGS) is increasingly recognized as a vital instrument for health intervention. However, its efficacy in mitigating infectious diseases remains conceptually contested. Drawing on longitudinal data from 300 Chinese prefecture-level cities (2003–2023), this study employs Spatial Durbin Models (SDM) and threshold regression to unravel the complex spatio-temporal trade-offs between UGS and chronic infectious diseases. Focusing on the mitigation of chronic infectious diseases, our findings challenge linear paradigms by unveiling a non-monotonic “risk-to-resilience” transition. In the nascent stages of greening, UGS expansion may paradoxically create a “pathogenic window” elevating transmission risk through intensified human-wildlife-environment interactions. However, once UGS coverage surpasses a critical tipping point, it serves as a potent ecological shield, significantly curbing the spread and latency of chronic infectious diseases. This suppression is achieved through microclimate stabilization, bio-filtration, and the enhancement of community salutogenesis. Furthermore, our analysis reveals robust positive spatial externalities, demonstrating that protection against chronic infections propagates across administrative borders via ecological corridors. This study identifies a pivotal scale effect in green governance, positioning UGS as a long-term strategic asset for demographic health. Our results advocate for a transition from localized planting to trans-regional collaborative green infrastructure networks, providing crucial theoretical scaffolding for the Healthy China 2030 initiative and the management of chronic infectious risks.
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