ArticleBMJ open2026
Transmission dynamics and control of tuberculosis in high-altitude regions: a modelling study in Xizang, China.
Article in BMJ open, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
objectivesTo estimate tuberculosis (TB) incidence trends in the high-altitude Xizang, China, and to explore the key intervention strategies on achieving the WHO 2030 TB control target.
designWe developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered transmission model using routinely reported TB surveillance data from 2004 to 2022. Scenario-based simulations were conducted to project future TB incidence under alternative intervention strategies. Model assumptions are as follows: (1) a stable population, (2) lifelong vaccine-induced immunity, (3) infectiousness of active TB cases, (4) relapse risk after recovery and (5) homogeneous mixing within the population.
settingSeven prefectures of Xizang Autonomous Region on the Tibetan Plateau, China.
participantsAn estimated population of approximately 3 million individuals residing in Xizang.
interventionsWe assessed the epidemiological impact of four interventions implemented independently: increasing vaccine efficacy rate, reducing transmission rates of susceptible individuals, decreasing progression rate from latent TB infection to active disease and reducing relapse rate among successfully treated patients, compared with continuation of current control measures.
resultsThe estimated basic reproduction number (
conclusionTargeted management of individuals with latent TB infection should be strengthened to substantially reduce TB transmission in high-altitude areas.
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