Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41732141›Full record

ArticleAlzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association2026

Midlife sensory and motor measures among best predictors in parsimonious models of long-term cognitive decline and incidence of cognitive impairment in aging adults.

Natascha Merten, A Alex Pinto, Carla R Schubert, Richard J Chappell, Yanjun Chen, Corinne D Engelman, Luigi Ferrucci, Laura M Hancock, Sterling C Johnson, Adam J Paulsen

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Article in Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Natascha MertenDepartment of Population Health Sciences, School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1405-1218
A Alex PintoDepartment of Biostatistics and Medical Informatics, School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA.
Carla R SchubertDepartment of Population Health Sciences, School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA.
Richard J ChappellDepartment of Biostatistics and Medical Informatics, School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA.
Yanjun ChenDepartment of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA.
Corinne D EngelmanDepartment of Population Health Sciences, School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA.
Luigi FerrucciLongitudinal Study Section, Intramural Research Program, National Institute on Aging, NIH, Gaithersburg, Maryland, USA.
Laura M HancockSection of Neuropsychology, Neurological Institute, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio, USA.
Sterling C JohnsonDivision of Geriatrics and Gerontology, Department of Medicine, School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA.
Adam J PaulsenDivision of Geriatrics and Gerontology, Department of Medicine, School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA.

Funding

FAMILIAL AND BIRTH COHORT EFFECTS ON THE AGING SENSESR01AG021917 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON · PI CRUICKSHANKS, KAREN J · 2004 to 2018
$25.2M
The Beaver Dam Offspring Study Neurocognitive Aging Study (BOSS-NCAS)-A Study on the Role of Accelerated Aging and Midlife Sensory Decline for Early Alzheimer’s Disease and Dementia in Later LifeR01AG079289 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON · PI Natascha Merten · 2022 to 2026
$3.7M
Multisensory, Motor, and Biomarker Changes in Aging and Preclinical Alzheimer's DiseaseRF1AG066837 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON · PI MERTEN, NATASCHA · 2020 to 2023
$2.1M
NIA NIH HHS R01 AG021917NIA NIH HHS R01 AG079289NIA NIH HHS RF1 AG066837NIH HHS R01AG021917NIH HHS R01AG079289NIH HHS RF1AG066837
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionWe aimed to construct a parsimonious risk prediction model of 10-year cognitive decline and impairment using factors measured in midlife.

methodsLongitudinal data of N = 1,529 (mean age 49 years; 54% women) Beaver Dam Offspring Study participants were included. We assessed several health measures at baseline and 10-year cognitive decline and cognitive impairment. We constructed Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) logistic regression models.

resultsThe top cognitive decline predictors (age, income, fine-motor skills, olfaction, peripheral artery disease, and serum neurofilament light chain protein [NfL]) and cognitive impairment predictors (sex, fine-motor skills, olfaction, self-rated vision, alcohol consumption, and NfL) yielded areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of 0.80 (95% confidence interval [0.76-0.83]) and 0.73[0.69-0.77], respectively. DISCUSSION: In middle-aged adults, sensory and motor function and NfL were among the best predictors of 10-year onset of cognitive decline and impairment. After external validation in other studies, these results could help identify those at risk for neurodegeneration and cognitive decline who could benefit from early interventions.

Indexed as

AgingCognitive DysfunctionFemaleHumansIncidenceLongitudinal StudiesMaleMiddle AgedNeurofilament ProteinsNeuropsychological TestsRisk Factorsneurofilament protein LNeurofilament Proteinscardiovascularcognitive declinecognitive impairmentcohort studydementiaearly detectionfine‐motor skillgrooved pegboardhearingincidencelongitudinalneurofilament light chain proteinolfactionperipheral arterial diseasevision

Identifiers

PMID41732141
PMCPMC12930225

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.