Observational studyMedicine2026
Global burden of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease from 1990 to 2046: A global population-based observational trend analysis using GBD 2021 data.
Observational study in Medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD; now often termed metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease), driven by obesity and lifestyle changes, affects approximately 25% of the world's population and imposes growing public-health, economic, and healthcare burdens with widening disparities. We analyzed incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for NAFLD using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study across 5 socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles, 21 Global Burden of Disease regions, and 204 countries and territories. We quantified temporal trends (1990-2021), geographic patterns, and SDI correlations; performed age-period-cohort modeling, decomposition and health-inequality analyses; and generated projections to 2046, including frontier analyses. From 1990 to 2021, the global NAFLD burden increased substantially. Incidence increased 1.95-fold over this period, corresponding to an absolute rise of ~23.5 million cases (≈23,497,114), driven chiefly by population growth (~74%) and epidemiologic change (~34%), with additional contributions from population aging. Prevalence, mortality, and DALYs also rose worldwide, with the heaviest burdens observed in intermediate-SDI countries and high-burden regions in North Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America. Inequality analyses indicated widening disparities for prevalence, mortality, and DALYs. Projections suggest continued growth through 2046, with persistent sex differences in prevalence. NAFLD remains a pervasive global health challenge marked by pronounced geographic and sociodemographic disparities. Targeted prevention and intervention strategies are needed, particularly for intermediate-SDI settings and identified high-burden regions.
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