Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41728062›Full record

SynthesisInternational journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease2026

Predictors of Acute Exacerbations in COPD: A Systematic Review.

Dumiana Chamaon, Anke Lenferink, Charlotte Bucsán, Sanne H B Van Dijk, Wendy J C Van Beurden, Paul D L P M van der Valk, Job van der Palen, Marjolein G J Brusse-Keizer

Abstract readSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Observational
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Dumiana ChamaonSection Cognition, Data, and Education, Faculty of Behavioural, Management and Social Sciences, University of Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands.ORCID 0009-0004-5809-5249
Anke LenferinkDepartment of Pulmonary Medicine, Medisch Spectrum Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-2276-5691
Charlotte BucsánSection Cognition, Data, and Education, Faculty of Behavioural, Management and Social Sciences, University of Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands.
Sanne H B Van DijkDepartment of Pulmonary Medicine, Medisch Spectrum Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0003-1727-0608
Wendy J C Van BeurdenDepartment of Pulmonary Medicine, Medisch Spectrum Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands.ORCID 0009-0000-2719-9943
Paul D L P M van der ValkDepartment of Pulmonary Medicine, Medisch Spectrum Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands.
Job van der PalenSection Cognition, Data, and Education, Faculty of Behavioural, Management and Social Sciences, University of Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0003-1071-6769
Marjolein G J Brusse-KeizerHealth Technology and Services Research, Faculty of Behavioural, Management and Social Sciences, Technical Medical Centre, University of Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0003-1781-5794

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: COPD is characterized by acute exacerbations (AECOPD), which drive its progression and burden. AECOPD can be caused by various factors. Better prediction of AECOPD provides opportunity for initiating preventive treatment. Methods: This systematic review provides an evidence-based overview of clinical predictors of moderate, severe AECOPD and relapse of moderate and severe AECOPD (≤28 days of a previous AECOPD). Cohort studies, case-control studies, or (cluster) randomized controlled trials published in English between January 2011-December 2023 in PubMed, CINAHL, Embase, Web of Science and the Cochrane library were assessed. Eligible studies included patients diagnosed with COPD, aged ≥40 years, and who were current or ex-smokers. Predictors of AECOPD were categorized into: patient characteristics, symptoms, biomarkers, lung function test results, and composite scores. Critical appraisal was performed with the QUIPS-tool. Results: Out of 1261 screened articles, 30 were included. Sixty-one distinct possible predictors of AECOPD were assessed, of which 37 were statistically significant (P < 0.05). Age, AECOPD history, fibrinogen, FEV Discussion: Based on the highest relative statistical significance, combined with the best overall risk of bias, the most promising predictors of AECOPD are history of ≥1 AECOPD, higher SGRQ-C scores, elevated fibrinogen levels, and worse COPD GOLD (2-4, B-D). Future research should focus on standardization of AECOPD and predictor definitions, including the use of clearly defined cut-off values. Given the complexity and heterogeneity of COPD, combining diverse predictor domains into composite measures may enhance predictive accuracy of AECOPD, and the integration of such composites is promising for advancing COPD management in clinical practice.

Indexed as

LungPulmonary Disease, Chronic ObstructiveAgedBiomarkersDisease ProgressionFemaleHealth StatusHumansMaleMiddle AgedPredictive Value of TestsPrognosisRecurrenceRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsSeverity of Illness IndexBiomarkerschronic obstructive pulmonary diseasedisease managementexacerbationpredictorsprognostic models

Identifiers

PMID41728062
PMCPMC12918757

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.