Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41726436›Full record

ArticleAMIA ... Annual Symposium proceedings. AMIA Symposium2024

Implementation and Assessment of Machine Learning Models for Forecasting Suspected Opioid Overdoses in Emergency Medical Services Data.

Aaron D Mullen, Daniel R Harris, Peter Rock, Katherine Thompson, Svetla Slavova, Jeffery Talbert, V K Cody Bumgardner

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in AMIA ... Annual Symposium proceedings. AMIA Symposium, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Aaron D MullenInstitute for Biomedical Informatics, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, USA.
Daniel R HarrisInstitute for Biomedical Informatics, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, USA.
Peter RockInstitute for Biomedical Informatics, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, USA.
Katherine ThompsonDr. Bing Zhang Department of Statistics, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, USA.
Svetla SlavovaDepartment of Biostatistics, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, USA.
Jeffery TalbertInstitute for Biomedical Informatics, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, USA.
V K Cody BumgardnerInstitute for Biomedical Informatics, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, USA.

Funding

Rapid Actionable Data for Opioid Response in Kentucky (RADOR-KY)R01DA057605 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY · PI Svetla Stefanova Slavova, Jeffery C Talbert · 2022 to 2026
$6.0M
NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA057605
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We present efforts in the fields of machine learning and time series forecasting to accurately predict counts of future suspected opioid overdoses recorded by Emergency Medical Services (EMS) in the state of Kentucky. Forecasts help government agencies properly prepare and distribute resources related to opioid overdoses. Our approach uses county and district level aggregations of suspected opioid overdose encounters and forecasts future counts for different time intervals. Models with different levels of complexity were evaluated to minimize forecasting error. A variety of additional covariates relevant to opioid overdoses and public health were tested to determine their impact on model performance. Our evaluation shows that useful predictions can be generated with limited error for different types of regions, and high performance can be achieved using commonly available covariates and relatively simple forecasting models.

Indexed as

Emergency Medical ServicesMachine LearningOpiate OverdoseDrug OverdoseForecastingHumansKentuckyPrediction AlgorithmsPredictive Learning Models

Identifiers

PMID41726436
PMCPMC12919628

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.