Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41725518›Full record

ArticleeLife2026

High-throughput neutralization measurements correlate strongly with evolutionary success of human influenza strains.

Caroline Kikawa, Andrea N Loes, John Huddleston, Marlin D Figgins, Philippa Steinberg, Tachianna Griffiths, Elizabeth M Drapeau, Heidi Peck, Ian Barr, Janet A Englund and 3 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in eLife, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Caroline Kikawa *Division of Basic Sciences and Computational Biology Program, Fred Hutch Cancer Center, Seattle, United States.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8654-5663
Andrea N Loes *Division of Basic Sciences and Computational Biology Program, Fred Hutch Cancer Center, Seattle, United States.
John HuddlestonVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutch Cancer Center, Seattle, United States.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4250-2063
Marlin D FigginsDivision of Basic Sciences and Computational Biology Program, Fred Hutch Cancer Center, Seattle, United States.
Philippa SteinbergVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutch Cancer Center, Seattle, United States.
Tachianna GriffithsDepartment of Microbiology, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, United States.
Elizabeth M DrapeauDepartment of Microbiology, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, United States.
Heidi PeckWHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia.
Ian BarrWHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Australia.
Janet A EnglundSeattle Children's Research Institute, Seattle, United States.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1134-4178
Scott E HensleyDepartment of Microbiology, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, United States.
Trevor BedfordHoward Hughes Medical Institute, Seattle, United States.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4039-5794
Jesse D BloomDivision of Basic Sciences and Computational Biology Program, Fred Hutch Cancer Center, Seattle, United States.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1267-3408

Funding

NIAID Centers of Excellence for Influenza Research and Response: Universal Influenza Vaccine Research Activities75N93021C00015 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI HENSLEY, SCOTT · 2021 to 2025
$50.7M
High-throughput experiments to guide influenza vaccine strain selectionR01AI127893 · NIAID · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI BLOOM, JESSE D · 2016 to 2020
$2.1M
Next-generation sequencing-based neutralization assays to forecast influenza virus clade growth.F30AI186284 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI Caroline Sakura Kikawa · 2025 to 2026
$92k
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases R01AI165821National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases T32AI083203NIAID NIH HHS 75N93021C00015NIAID NIH HHS F30 AI186284NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI127893
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Human influenza viruses rapidly acquire mutations in their hemagglutinin (HA) protein that erode neutralization by antibodies from prior exposures. Here, we use a sequencing-based assay to measure neutralization titers for 78 recent H3N2 HA strains against a large set of children and adult sera, measuring ~10,000 total titers. There is substantial person-to-person heterogeneity in the titers against different viral strains, both within and across age cohorts. The growth rates of H3N2 strains in the human population in 2023 are highly correlated with the fraction of sera with low titers against each strain. Notably, strain growth rates are less correlated with neutralization titers against pools of human sera, demonstrating the importance of population heterogeneity in shaping viral evolution. Overall, these results suggest that high-throughput neutralization measurements of human sera against many different viral strains can help explain the evolution of human influenza.

Indexed as

Antibodies, NeutralizingAntibodies, ViralEvolution, MolecularInfluenza A Virus, H3N2 SubtypeInfluenza, HumanAdultChildHemagglutinin Glycoproteins, Influenza VirusHumansNeutralization TestsAntibodies, NeutralizingAntibodies, ViralHemagglutinin Glycoproteins, Influenza Virusantigenic driftevolutionary biologyinfectious diseaseinfluenzamicrobiologyseqneutsequencing-based neutralization assayvaccineviruses

Identifiers

PMID41725518
PMCPMC12928701

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.