ArticleParasites & vectors2026
Temperature and competition: drivers in the ecological dynamics of Aedes mosquitoes and dengue spread.
Article in Parasites & vectors, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundDengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease endemic to tropical regions, primarily transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Climate-driven temperature changes are altering vector ecology and expanding the geographic range where both species coexist. However, the combined effects of temperature variability and interspecific interactions, particularly the highly competitive larval stage, on mosquito population dynamics and dengue transmission remain poorly understood.
methodsWe developed a deterministic model incorporating temperature-dependent parameters to analyze vector interactions across larval stage, coupled with a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) framework for human infection dynamics. We evaluated species invasion capability, population dynamics, and transmission patterns through invasion and coexistence analyses, as well as infection peak assessment. The basic reproductive number (
resultsThe invasion analysis showed that larval competition was the central determinant of species outcomes. Under temperature-independent conditions, Aedes albopictus could invade only when the larval pressure exerted by Aedes aegypti (
conclusionsTemperature significantly influences competitive interactions and dengue transmission dynamics between Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Temperature-dependent conditions enhance Ae. albopictus invasion and promote coexistence, while Ae. aegypti drives higher infection peaks under favorable thermal conditions. Increased Ae. albopictus competition lowers transmission, particularly in temperature-dependent scenarios; however, situations where both vectors exhibit similar abundances represent the most concerning context. These findings underscore the importance of integrating temperature effects and interspecific competition into vector control strategies in regions such as Colombia, where both species coexist, to effectively mitigate dengue transmission under varying climatic conditions.
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