Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41722211›Full record

ArticleThe International journal on drug policy2026

Impact of alcohol excise taxation and structural reforms on per capita consumption in Thailand, 1995-2021: an interrupted time-series analysis.

Nyi Nyi Zayar, Polathep Vichitkunakorn, Wichai Aekplakorn, Surasak Chaiyasong, Daniela Correia, Ahmed S Hassan, Kyaw Ko Ko Htet, Jiraluck Nontarak, Roengrudee Patanavanich, Pol Rovira and 6 more

Abstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in The International journal on drug policy, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

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0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

16 authors.

Nyi Nyi ZayarCentre for Alcohol Studies, Prince of Songkla University, Hat Yai, Songkhla 90110, Thailand.
Polathep VichitkunakornCentre for Alcohol Studies, Prince of Songkla University, Hat Yai, Songkhla 90110, Thailand; Department of Family and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Prince of Songkla University, 15 Kanjanavanich Rd, Hat Yai, Songkhla 90110, Thailand; Research and Innovation Center for Well-being and Continuing Care, Prince of Songkla University, Hat Yai, Songkhla, 90110, Thailand.
Wichai AekplakornDepartment of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, 270 Rama VI Road, Toong Phaya Thai, Ratchathewi, Bangkok 10400, Thailand.
Surasak ChaiyasongSocial Pharmacy & Alcohol and Health Promotion Policy Research Units, Faculty of Pharmacy, Mahasarakham University, Maha Sarakham 44150, Thailand.
Daniela CorreiaWHO Regional Office for Europe, UN City, Marmorvej 51, 2100, Copenhagen, Denmark; EPIUnit - Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal; Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR), Porto, Portugal.
Ahmed S HassanInstitute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, 250 College Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M5T 1R8; PAHO/WHO Collaborating Centre at CAMH, 250 College Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M5T 1R8; Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College Street, 6th Floor, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M5T 3M7. Electronic address: ahmeds.hassan@mail.utoronto.ca.
Kyaw Ko Ko HtetCentre for Alcohol Studies, Prince of Songkla University, Hat Yai, Songkhla 90110, Thailand.
Jiraluck NontarakDepartment of Epidemiology, Faculty of Public Health, Mahidol University, 420/1 Rajvithi road, Rajthevee, Bangkok 10400, Thailand.
Roengrudee PatanavanichDepartment of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, 270 Rama VI Road, Toong Phaya Thai, Ratchathewi, Bangkok 10400, Thailand.
Pol RoviraProgram on Substance Abuse & WHO European Region Collaboration Centre, Public Health Agency of Catalonia, Aragó Street 330 08009, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain.
Kevin ShieldInstitute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, 250 College Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M5T 1R8; PAHO/WHO Collaborating Centre at CAMH, 250 College Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M5T 1R8; Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College Street, 6th Floor, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M5T 3M7; Campbell Family Mental Health Research Institute, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, 250 College Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M5T 1R8.
Bundit SornpaisarnInstitute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, 250 College Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M5T 1R8; Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College Street, 6th Floor, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M5T 3M7.
Udomsak SaengowCenter of Excellence in Data Science for Health Study, Walailak University, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Thailand; School of Medicine, Walailak University, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Thailand.
Wit WichaiditDepartment of Family and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Prince of Songkla University, 15 Kanjanavanich Rd, Hat Yai, Songkhla 90110, Thailand; Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Prince of Songkla University, 15 Kanjanavanich Rd, Hat Yai, Songkhla 90110, Thailand.
Sawitri AssanangkornchaiCentre for Alcohol Studies, Prince of Songkla University, Hat Yai, Songkhla 90110, Thailand. Electronic address: savitree.a@psu.ac.th.
Jürgen RehmWHO Regional Office for Europe, UN City, Marmorvej 51, 2100, Copenhagen, Denmark; Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, 250 College Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M5T 1R8; PAHO/WHO Collaborating Centre at CAMH, 250 College Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M5T 1R8; Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College Street, 6th Floor, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M5T 3M7; Program on Substance Abuse & WHO European Region Collaboration Centre, Public Health Agency of Catalonia, Aragó Street 330 08009, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain; Campbell Family Mental Health Research Institute, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, 250 College Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M5T 1R8; Institute of Medical Science, Temerty Faculty of Medicine, C. David Naylor Building, 6 Queen's Park Crescent, Suite 119, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M5S 3H2; Department of Psychiatry, Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, 250 College Street, 8th floor, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M5T 1R8; Centre of Interdisciplinary Addiction Research (ZIS), Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (UKE), Martinistraße 52, 20246 Hamburg, Germany. Electronic address: jtrehm@gmail.com.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAlcohol taxation is a highly effective alcohol control policy, but adjustments for inflation and affordability are essential to sustain its impact. Between 1996 and 2017, Thailand implemented 11 excise tax increases and two structural reforms. This study examines the combined effects of these changes on alcohol consumption over time.

methodsInterrupted time-series analyses, adjusting for autocorrelation and seasonality, were conducted using monthly recorded adult alcohol per capita consumption (APC) data from January 1995 to December 2021. We assessed the impact of tax increase policies that affected more than 15 % of the total alcohol market, and two structural reforms. Increases in 1997-98 were combined due to their temporal proximity.

resultsExcise tax increases in January 1997, March 2001, and September 2007 were associated with reductions in APC of 9.7 % (95 % CI: 4.1 %, 15.0 %), 4.8 % (95 % CI: -0.9 %, 10.2 %), and 6.7 % (95 % CI: 0.6 %, 12.3 %), respectively. Structural reforms in 2013 and 2017 had on average larger effects, reducing APC by 9.3 % (95 % CI: 1.1 %, 16.8 %) and 23.0 % (95 % CI: 14.5 %, 30.6 %), respectively. Modelling indicates that without these taxation policies, total recorded APC between 1995 and 2021 could have been on average 0.56 litres (L) higher in each year, and 1.99 L higher by 2021.

conclusionAlcohol excise taxation (i.e., excise tax increases and structural reforms) significantly reduced APC in Thailand. Future taxation policies should include automatic adjustments for changes in inflation and/or disposable household income to sustain their long-term public health impact.

Indexed as

Alcohol DrinkingAlcoholic BeveragesTaxesCommerceHumansInterrupted Time Series AnalysisThailandAlcoholAlcohol consumption per capitaEconomic growthInterrupted time-series analysesLong-term impactTaxationThailand

Identifiers

PMID41722211
PMCPMC13022754

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.