Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41722138›Full record

ArticleBreast (Edinburgh, Scotland)2026

Incidence of treated brain metastases among patients with stage I-III breast cancer: A population-based study.

Katarzyna J Jerzak, Italo Fernandes, Hany Soliman, Bo Zhang, Refik Saskin, Geoffrey Liu, Sunit Das, Arjun Sahgal, Kelvin Kw Chan, Monika Kryzanowska and 1 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Breast (Edinburgh, Scotland), 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Katarzyna J JerzakDivision of Medical Oncology, Sunnybrook Odette Cancer Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Institute of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Electronic address: katarzyna.jerzak@sunnybrook.ca.
Italo FernandesDivision of Medical Oncology, Sunnybrook Odette Cancer Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Hany SolimanDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Sunnybrook Odette Cancer Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Bo ZhangICES, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Refik SaskinICES, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Geoffrey LiuDivision of Medical Oncology and Hematology, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.
Sunit DasDivision of Neurosurgery, St Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
Arjun SahgalDepartment of Radiation Oncology, Sunnybrook Odette Cancer Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Kelvin Kw ChanDivision of Medical Oncology, Sunnybrook Odette Cancer Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Institute of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Monika KryzanowskaDivision of Medical Oncology, Sunnybrook Odette Cancer Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Institute of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Rania ChehadeDivision of Medical Oncology, Sunnybrook Odette Cancer Centre, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Institute of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe incidence and risk factors for brain metastases among patients with stage I-III breast cancer remain poorly defined. PATIENTS AND

methodsWe conducted a population-based cohort study using Ontario health administrative databases to identify patients diagnosed with stage I-III breast cancer between 2009 and 2021. Treatment of brain metastases with surgery or radiation was extracted from the same databases. Patients were stratified by breast cancer subtype: human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 positive/hormone receptor positive (HER2+/HR+), HER2+/hormone receptor negative (HER2+/HR-), HR+/HER2-, and triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). Primary outcomes were the cumulative incidence of treated brain metastases and time to brain metastasis (TTBM) as defined by the time from primary breast cancer diagnosis to brain metastases treatment.

resultsAmong 92,973 patients, 7.9% had HER2+/HR+, 3.5% HER2+/HR-, 54.1% HR+/HER2-, 7.3% TNBC, and 27.2% unknown subtype. Median (IQR) follow-up was 84.2 (50.8-125.2) months. The 12-year cumulative incidence of treated brain metastases was 2.8% in the overall cohort. Among patients with stage III disease, 12-year incidence was 11.8% (HER2+/HR+), 14.3% (HER2+/HR-), 5.9% (HR+/HER2-), and 13.4% (TNBC); corresponding 5-year incidences were 7.5%, 11.2%, and 13.1% for stage III HER2+/HR+, HER2+/HR-, and TNBC, respectively. Among patients with stage III HER2+/HR- and TNBC, median TTBM was 23.3 and 18.0 months, respectively.

conclusionUp to 13% of patients with stage III HER2+ or TNBC received treatment for brain metastases within 5 years of diagnosis with early-stage breast cancer. These findings support prospective studies of risk-stratified screening for asymptomatic brain metastases in patients with early-stage breast cancer.

Indexed as

Brain NeoplasmsBreast NeoplasmsAdultAgedCohort StudiesErb-b2 Receptor Tyrosine KinasesFemaleHumansIncidenceMiddle AgedNeoplasm StagingOntarioRisk FactorsErb-b2 Receptor Tyrosine Kinases

Identifiers

PMID41722138
PMCPMC12937143

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.