Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41720892›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2026

Usmile likelihood evaluation provides robust threshold free assessment of binary classification models for balanced and imbalanced datasets.

Barbara Więckowska, Przemysław Guzik

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

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3 · Its place in the literature

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Barbara WięckowskaDepartment of Computer Science and Statistics, Poznan University of Medical Sciences, Poznan, Poland. bbwieckowska@gmail.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1811-2583
Przemysław GuzikDepartment of Cardiology-Intensive Therapy and Internal Medicine, Poznan University of Medical Sciences, Poznan, Poland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9052-5027

Funding

Minister of Education and Science NdS-II/SP/0207/2024/01
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Current metrics for binary classification, like the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) or Log Loss, provide a global performance score. However, they do not quantify predictive quality separately for event and non-event classes. This limitation is particularly critical in imbalanced settings like medical diagnostics. To address it, we introduce the U-smile Likelihood Evaluation (LE) method, a substantial extension of the original U-smile framework. The U-smile LE method is based on a new metric called the relative Likelihood Ratio (rLR). This single score measures overall model strength without needing a classification threshold. We decompose this score into two class-specific components: [Formula: see text] for event class and [Formula: see text] for non-event class, visualizing them simultaneously in a compact U-shaped plot. We validated the U-smile LE method on synthetic datasets with varying class imbalance and a real-world clinical Heart Disease dataset. In severely imbalanced scenarios (90/10 class distribution), stepwise variable selection guided by U-smile LE outperformed traditional AUC-based selection, improving minority-class detection by 16% in the Area Under the Precision-Recall curve (AUC-PR) and 21% in F1-score. The evolution of U-smile patterns during variable selection provided clear, interpretable insight into class-specific contributions of individual predictors. Demonstrated with both logistic regression and random forest models, U-smile LE offers an explainable, model-agnostic framework for evaluating binary classifiers, especially valuable where class imbalance and interpretability are key concerns.

Indexed as

Binary classificationExplainable machine learningImbalanced dataLikelihood ratioModel assessmentThreshold-independent evaluationVariable selection

Identifiers

PMID41720892
PMCPMC13022492

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.