External validation of risk scores and multivariate models for the diagnosis of community-acquired pneumonia in outpatients.

backgroundWhile several risk scores for the diagnosis of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) have been developed, they require prospective external validation.

objectivesTo externally validate existing prediction models, risk scores, and heuristics for the diagnosis of CAP in adults.

methodsThe Enhancing Antibiotic Stewardship in Primary Care (EAST-PC) study recorded signs, symptoms, demographics, and vitals in 718 adults presenting to primary or urgent care clinics with acute lower respiratory tract infection between 2019 and 2023. C-reactive protein (CRP) was available for 575. The diagnosis of CAP was based on the clinician diagnosis and/or chest radiograph. Literature was searched for previous risk scores. Using the EAST-PC population, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC), calibration curves, and percentage with CAP in each risk group were calculated for each risk score.

resultsWe identified 11 studies describing 4 risk scores, 9 multivariate models, and 5 simple heuristics. The Genomics to Combat Resistance Against Antibiotics in Community-acquired LRTI in Europe (GRACE) risk score using the absence of a runny nose, the presence of breathlessness, crackles, diminished vesicular breathing, heart rate > 100/min, temperature >37.8 °C, and CRP > 30 mg/L was the most accurate (AUROCC 0.81). It classified 280 patients as low (0.7% CAP), 265 as moderate (5.7%) and 30 as high risk (33.3%) for CAP. The GRACE score without CRP performed similarly. Other risk scores had poor calibration or failed to accurately classify patients as low or high risk.

conclusionsThe previously derived GRACE risk scores were successfully externally validated in a contemporary US outpatient population.