ArticleEpidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland)2026
Geographical Variation in SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Potential in Massachusetts.
Article in Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland), 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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6 authors.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND/
objectivesThis ecological study aimed to investigate changes in the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) of SARS-CoV-2 across six regions of Massachusetts from 2020 to 2022 and to evaluate the impact of various nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented in 2020 by examining associated changes in the Rt.
methodsCOVID-19 incident case data from the Johns Hopkins University database were adjusted for reporting delays using deconvolution and for underreporting via a Poisson-distributed multiplier of 4. Negative and zero counts were corrected using imputation. Rt was estimated using R package
resultsFrom 2020 to 2022, Massachusetts experienced five COVID-19 surges, linked to the wild-type strain and emerging variants, with Rt exceeding 1 during each wave and stabilizing at or dropping below 1 during low-incidence phases. School closure and gathering restrictions, the first major intervention, were associated with a 14.7% statewide reduction in Rt (95% credible interval (CrI): -23.6%, -5.6%), with greater reductions in high-density areas such as Boston (-16.9%; 95% CrI: -26.9%, -7.5%). No statistically significant changes in Rt were found to be associated with other NPIs in 2020, including the mask mandate, reopening phases, travel restrictions and quarantine requirements, and curfews.
conclusionsOur findings highlight the different NPIs' varying impacts on COVID-19 transmission dynamics across regions in Massachusetts in 2020 and underscore the importance of early interventions for future pandemic preparedness.
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