Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41711532›Full record

ArticleArthritis & rheumatology (Hoboken, N.J.)2026

A Metabolomic Signature Predicts Gout Flare Clinical Outcome Associated With Colchicine Prophylaxis.

Wenyan Sun, Lingfang Xu, Haibing Chen, Mingshu Sun, Zhiqiang Li, Rui Li, Lidan Ma, Hui Zhang, Aichang Ji, Yuwei He and 4 more

Abstract readMulticenter Study
In one paragraph

Article in Arthritis & rheumatology (Hoboken, N.J.), 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Wenyan SunXiang'an Hospital of Xiamen University, Xiamen, China.ORCID 0000-0003-2265-3566
Lingfang XuShandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Immune Diseases and Gout, Shandong Provincial Clinical Medical Center for Gout, the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, China.ORCID 0009-0002-0848-4786
Haibing ChenDepartment of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Shanghai Tenth People's Hospital, School of Medicine, Tongji University, Shanghai, China.ORCID 0000-0002-2259-5522
Mingshu SunXiang'an Hospital of Xiamen University, Xiamen, China.
Zhiqiang LiShandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Immune Diseases and Gout, Shandong Provincial Clinical Medical Center for Gout, the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, China.
Rui LiShanghai Institute of Nutrition and Health, Shanghai, China.
Lidan MaShandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Immune Diseases and Gout, Shandong Provincial Clinical Medical Center for Gout, the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, China.
Hui ZhangShandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Immune Diseases and Gout, Shandong Provincial Clinical Medical Center for Gout, the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, China.
Aichang JiShandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Immune Diseases and Gout, Shandong Provincial Clinical Medical Center for Gout, the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, China.ORCID 0000-0002-3726-6844
Yuwei HeShandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Immune Diseases and Gout, Shandong Provincial Clinical Medical Center for Gout, the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, China.ORCID 0000-0002-5107-5323
Na WuShandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Immune Diseases and Gout, Shandong Provincial Clinical Medical Center for Gout, the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, China.
Le YanDepartment of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Shanghai Tenth People's Hospital, School of Medicine, Tongji University, Shanghai, China.
Robert TerkeltaubUniversity of California San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5368-7473
Changgui LiXiang'an Hospital of Xiamen University, Xiamen, China.ORCID 0000-0002-4622-3731

Funding

Key R&D Program of Shandong Province, China 2021CXGC011103Key R&D Program of Shandong Province, China 2021ZDSYS06National Key R&D Program of China 2022YFC2503300National Natural Science Foundation of China 82220108015Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation ZR2023QH147
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveThis study investigated that serum metabolomics, before urate-lowering therapy (ULT) initiation, could serve as a biomarker for responsiveness to colchicine prophylaxis in patients with gout commencing treat-to-target ULT.

methodsWe studied a multicenter prospective cohort (n = 409) initiating treat-to-target ULT plus colchicine prophylaxis. Untargeted metabolomics were measured at enrollment. We defined putative colchicine response or colchicine nonresponse as no flare or one or more flares, respectively, during six months after first colchicine dose. Cox regression and machine learning models defined the metabolomic signatures associated with reported flare activity on colchicine prophylaxis in the cohort.

resultsIn our cohort, 36.9% participants experienced at least one flare. Many inflammation-related metabolites were differentially abundant in the recurrent flare group and correlated with recurrent flare risk. A significant association was found between a four-metabolite risk score and gout flare activity (adjusted hazard ratio 3.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.24-4.59), independent of the adjusted clinical factors. The machine learning model, which incorporated the top-ranked metabolites selected by multivariable methods with unbiased variable selection along with traditional clinical factors, reached an area under the receiver operating characteristic of 0.771 (95% CI 0.713-0.828) and 0.724 (95% CI 0.611-0.837) for predicting flare risk in the discovery and validation cohort, respectively.

conclusionMetabolomic profile-defined inflammation status was associated with gout flare outcomes in ULT initiators receiving colchicine prophylaxis. Identification of these novel metabolomic predictive signatures before ULT could potentially help optimize clinical decision-making for flare prophylaxis colchicine dosing and duration in the first six months after initiation of treat-to-target ULT in gout.

Indexed as

ColchicineGoutGout SuppressantsAdultBiomarkersFemaleHumansMachine LearningMaleMetabolomicsMiddle AgedProportional Hazards ModelsProspective StudiesSymptom Flare UpTreatment OutcomeUric AcidBiomarkersColchicineGout SuppressantsUric Acid

Identifiers

PMID41711532
PMCPMC13430129

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.