Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41709076›Full record

ArticleJournal of general internal medicine2026

Advanced Versus Invasive Breast Cancer Risk in a Screening Population: Implications for Risk-based Prevention and Screening Strategies.

Brian L Sprague, Charlotte C Gard, Shuai Chen, Jeffrey A Tice, Anna N A Tosteson, Hannah Perry, Christoph I Lee, Diana L Miglioretti, Karla Kerlikowske

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of general internal medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Brian L SpragueOffice of Health Promotion Research, Department of Surgery, University of Vermont Larner College of Medicine, Burlington, VT, USA. brian.sprague@med.uvm.edu.ORCID 0000-0001-7948-8317
Charlotte C GardDepartment of Economics, Applied Statistics, and International Business, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM, USA.
Shuai ChenDivision of Biostatistics, Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, USA.
Jeffrey A TiceDivision of General Internal Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Anna N A TostesonDartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, Lebanon, NH, USA.
Hannah PerryDepartment of Radiology, University of Vermont Larner College of Medicine, Burlington, VT, USA.
Christoph I LeeDepartment of Radiology, School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA.
Diana L MigliorettiDivision of Biostatistics, Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, USA.
Karla KerlikowskeDepartment of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.

Funding

Staff InvestigatorsP30CA093373 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA DAVIS · PI KC KENT LLOYD · 2002 to 2026
$84.9M
Risk-based Imaging Strategies to Improve Breast Cancer Surveillance OutcomesP01CA154292 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AT DAVIS · PI Diana L Miglioretti · 2011 to 2026
$52.9M
Understanding Factors Influencing COVID-19 Testing and Vaccination in Immigrant Low-income and Homeless Populations and Testing Targeted InterventionsU54GM115516 · NIGMS · MAINEHEALTH · PI Robert A Koza · 2017 to 2026
$51.6M
Identifying effective risk-based supplemental ultrasound screening strategies for women with dense breastsR01CA248068 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF VERMONT & ST AGRIC COLLEGE · PI Diana L Miglioretti, Brian L Sprague · 2020 to 2026
$5.1M
NCI NIH HHS P01 CA154292NCI NIH HHS P30 CA093373NCI NIH HHS R01 CA248068NIGMS NIH HHS U54 GM115516
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundMost risk-based breast cancer prevention and screening strategies rely on estimated invasive breast cancer risk. A recently developed model from the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) identifies women at elevated advanced cancer risk (prognostic pathologic stage II or greater) despite undergoing regular mammography screening.

objectiveTo describe the characteristics of women identified for risk-based interventions based on advanced versus invasive breast cancer risk.

designCross-sectional study.

participantsWomen aged 40-74 years undergoing mammography screening in routine clinical practice at 165 radiology facilities participating in the BCSC. MAIN MEASURES: Established BCSC risk models were used to calculate cumulative 6-year advanced breast cancer risk and BCSC 5-year invasive breast cancer risk, stratified by age, race and ethnicity, breast density, and body mass index. KEY

resultsAmong 756,971 included women, the Spearman correlation between advanced and invasive cancer risk scores was 0.75. 31.9% of women had intermediate/high (≥ 0.38%) advanced cancer risk and 32.5% had intermediate/high (≥ 1.67%) invasive cancer risk. 21.1% had intermediate/high risk in both models and 22.1% had intermediate/high risk in only one model. Thirty-five percent of women with intermediate/high invasive cancer risk had low/average advanced cancer risk, and 16% of women with low/average invasive cancer risk had intermediate/high advanced cancer risk. Among women with intermediate/high advanced cancer risk, 17.5% were age 40-49, 25.7% were Black, 69.7% had dense breasts, and 81.1% were overweight/obese. Among women with intermediate/high invasive breast cancer risk, 5.2% were age 40-49, 11.9% were Black, 56.5% had dense breasts, and 70.6% were overweight/obese.

conclusionsThere are substantial differences in the characteristics of women identified as having elevated risk based on the advanced versus invasive breast cancer risk models. The advanced cancer risk model is important for identifying women who are young, Black, overweight/obese, or have dense breasts at intermediate/higher advanced cancer risk for consideration of risk-based interventions.

Indexed as

Breast NeoplasmsEarly Detection of CancerMass ScreeningAdultAgedCross-Sectional StudiesFemaleHumansMammographyMiddle AgedNeoplasm InvasivenessRisk AssessmentRisk Factorsbreast cancercancer epidemiologycancer screeningrisk assessment

Identifiers

PMID41709076
PMCPMC13081705

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.