Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41708988›Full record

ArticleCommunications psychology2026

Self-serving biases shape the relationship between future thinking and remembering of elections.

Marius Boeltzig, Ricarda I Schubotz, Scott Cole, Clare J Rathbone

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Communications psychology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Marius BoeltzigDepartment of Psychology, University of Münster, Münster, Germany. marius.boeltzig@uni-muenster.de.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0007-8930-0171
Ricarda I SchubotzDepartment of Psychology, University of Münster, Münster, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5802-6869
Scott Cole *School of Education, Language and Psychology, York St John University, York, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8176-283X
Clare J Rathbone *Centre for Psychological Research, Oxford Brookes University, Oxford, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0008-5794-1297

Funding

Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Foundation) SCHU1439_10-2
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

While there is a strong relationship between remembering and future thinking, it has been unclear whether this persists when constraining participants to one specific significant public event. We employed a unique longitudinal approach to uncover how the differences and similarities between remembering and imagining are influenced by self-serving biases evoked by the event itself. Across three longitudinal questionnaire studies testing participants before and after 2024 elections in Germany (N = 136), the UK (N = 89), and the USA (N = 243), we found evidence for self-serving biases in the congruence between future thinking and remembering. Election winners robustly remembered the election as more important and more vivid than they had imagined it before. In the US study, the inconsistency in attitudes across time caused by this shift was resolved by also misremembering the prediction given before the election, with Harris voters thinking they had predicted a less fair, and Trump voters thinking they had predicted a fairer election than they actually had. Additionally, there was an overestimation of pre-election optimism among Harris voters, possibly to help explain current feelings about the outcome, and an underestimation of optimism for Trump voters, making the win more significant. The results reveal that phenomenological differences between remembering and future thinking are contingent on self-serving biases and indicate that participants misremember previous future thoughts in accordance with current needs and attitudes. These mechanisms can lead to entrenched polarization, as partisan beliefs are reinforced by biased future thinking and remembering.

Identifiers

PMID41708988
PMCPMC13000295

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.