Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41708460›Full record

ArticleChinese journal of traumatology = Zhonghua chuang shang za zhi2026

Global burden, trends, and projections of tetanus for 2050: Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study.

Tongying Liu, Menglong Liu, Guosheng Yang, Qingqing Ye, Tianjing Sun, Xiaojun Zhang, Anping Liu, Renjie Song, Can Luo, Xiaofei Huang and 2 more

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PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Chinese journal of traumatology = Zhonghua chuang shang za zhi, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Tongying LiuEmergency Department, The Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi, 563003, Guizhou Province, China.
Menglong LiuZunyi Medical University, Zunyi, 563003, Guizhou Province, China.
Guosheng YangEmergency Department, The Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi, 563003, Guizhou Province, China.
Qingqing YeEmergency Department, The Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi, 563003, Guizhou Province, China.
Tianjing SunEmergency Department, The Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi, 563003, Guizhou Province, China.
Xiaojun ZhangEmergency Department, The Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi, 563003, Guizhou Province, China.
Anping LiuEmergency Department, The Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi, 563003, Guizhou Province, China.
Renjie SongEmergency Department, The Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi, 563003, Guizhou Province, China.
Can LuoEmergency Department, The Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi, 563003, Guizhou Province, China.
Xiaofei HuangEmergency Department, The Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi, 563003, Guizhou Province, China.
Anyong YuEmergency Department, The Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi, 563003, Guizhou Province, China.
Haizhen DuanEmergency Department, The Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University, Zunyi, 563003, Guizhou Province, China. Electronic address: jane0851@zmu.edu.cn.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeThis study explores long-term trends and epidemiological characteristics of the global burden of tetanus over the past 3 decades and projects its disease burden up to 2050, providing a comprehensive assessment of the global impact of tetanus.

methodsThe data of this study cover the period from 1990 to 2021, with projections made for 2050. Drawing on methodologies and findings of the Global Burden of Disease and Risk Factors Study 2021, employing key indicators such as prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years, years lived with disability, and years of life lost provides a detailed account of the global burden of tetanus. By utilizing the socio-demographic index (SDI) values across different global regions, along with decomposition analysis and the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model, this study further elucidated the epidemiological patterns of tetanus and projected its global disease burden up to 2050. Integrating sample data and prior knowledge of unknown parameters yields posterior distributions for further parameter inference. This study uses the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort and Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations packages in R for prediction and employs decomposition analysis to identify key factors influencing tetanus burden.

resultsFrom 1990 to 2021, the global burden of tetanus showed a declining trend. In 2021, the disease burden was mainly concentrated among males and newborns. Specifically, the global incidence rate among males was 20,490 (95% uncertainty interval: 15,059-26,547), and among newborns was 14,263 (95% uncertainty interval: 5767-25,942). Within regions with different SDI levels, high-SDI regions had a lower disease burden, while low-SDI regions faced a heavier burden. Decomposition analysis indicated that epidemiological factors were the key determinants of the global burden of tetanus. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort projections suggested that by 2050, the global burden of tetanus would continue to decline, but the uncertainty interval would widen.

conclusionThe reduction in the global disease burden of tetanus reflects the success of global prevention and control efforts. Future prevention strategies should, building on existing immunization foundations, focus on newborns and men as key target groups, strengthen tetanus immunization for pregnant women, and intensify public awareness campaigns on tetanus prevention to maintain the disease burden at a low level.

Indexed as

Global Burden of DiseaseTetanusAdolescentAdultAgedBayes TheoremChildChild, PreschoolDisability-Adjusted Life YearsFemaleHumansIncidenceInfantMaleMiddle AgedPrevalenceBayesian age-period-cohort modelDecomposition analysisDisease burdenEpidemiological studySocio-Demographic IndexTetanus

Identifiers

PMID41708460
PMCPMC13654329

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.