Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41700142›Full record

ArticleAlzheimer's & dementia (New York, N. Y.)

Evaluation of amyloid change as a surrogate for cognitive decline: demonstration in individual-level data from the A4 study of solanezumab.

Sarah F Ackley, Michael D Flanders, Audrey Murchland, Ruijia Chen, Jingxuan Wang, Sachin J Shah, Edward D Huey, M Maria Glymour

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Alzheimer's & dementia (New York, N. Y.). The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Sarah F AckleyDepartment of Epidemiology Brown University Providence Rhode Island USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0181-6063
Michael D FlandersDepartment of Epidemiology Brown University Providence Rhode Island USA.
Audrey MurchlandDepartment of Epidemiology Boston University Boston Massachusetts USA.
Ruijia ChenDepartment of Epidemiology Boston University Boston Massachusetts USA.
Jingxuan WangDepartment of Epidemiology & Biostatistics UCSF San Francisco California USA.
Sachin J ShahDivision of General Internal Medicine and Center for Aging and Serious Illness Massachusetts General Hospital Boston Massachusetts USA.
Edward D HueyDepartment of Psychiatry and Human Behavior Alpert Medical School of Brown University Providence Rhode Island USA.
M Maria GlymourDepartment of Epidemiology Boston University Boston Massachusetts USA.

Funding

Project 4: Social isolation as a driver of AD/ADRD incidence and disparitiesP01AG082653 · NIA · BOSTON UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CAMPUS · PI Jacqueline Marie Torres · 2024 to 2026
$23.6M
Mathematical Models of Tau-PET Measures and Cognitive Decline in Alzheimer's Disease Across the LifespanR00AG073454 · NIA · BROWN UNIVERSITY · PI Sarah Ackley · 2024 to 2026
$742k
The Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Vaccination on the Risk of Alzheimer’s Disease and Related DementiasK00AG083306 · NIA · HARVARD UNIVERSITY D/B/A HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH · PI Jingxuan Wang · 2025 to 2026
$174k
The Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Vaccination on the Risk of Alzheimer’s Disease and Related DementiasF99AG083306 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI WANG, JINGXUAN · 2023 to 2025
$72k
NIA NIH HHS F99 AG083306NIA NIH HHS K00 AG083306NIA NIH HHS P01 AG082653NIA NIH HHS R00 AG073454
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Differential amyloid change has served as a surrogate outcome in Alzheimer's disease trials, allowing accelerated approval of aducanumab and lecanemab. Individual-level data from the A4 study support the demonstration of novel methods to evaluate amyloid's validity as a surrogate for cognitive decline. Methods: In 812 participants, cognitive change was measured using the Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) score. Instrumental-variable analysis estimated the effect of amyloid change; mediation analysis quantified proportion of cognitive effects mediated by amyloid change. Results: Each 10-Centiloid reduction in amyloid due to randomization to treatment was associated with a 0.026 higher CDR-SB score (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.013, 0.065). Amyloid reduction mediated 14.6% of solanezumab's effect on cognition (95% CI: -122%, 208%). Discussion: Near-zero effect estimates for amyloid change on cognitive decline in the A4 study suggest minimal impact of limited amyloid change reduction in populations with little disease progression. The broader question of validity of amyloid as a surrogate outcome cannot be conclusively answered in data from the A4 study due to study-intrinsic limitations. Replication in anti-amyloid trials with larger treatment effects will evaluate whether amyloid is an appropriate surrogate outcome. Highlights: This study evaluated amyloid change's validity as a surrogate for cognitive and functional decline in AD drug trials.Newly available individual-level trial data from the A4 study enabled the application of epidemiologic and econometric methods to assess amyloid's impact on cognition.IV and causal mediation analyses estimated the effect of amyloid change on cognitive outcomes.Amyloid change mediated 15% of solanezumab's cognitive effect, though estimates were imprecise due to limited disease progression in the sample and solanezumab's minimal amyloid removal.Applying the same methods to data from trials of more effective anti-amyloid drugs could validate amyloid as a surrogate outcome, guide related regulatory decisions, and influence treatment strategy.

Indexed as

Alzheimer's diseaseamyloid pathologybiomarker surrogate validationcausal inferenceclinical trialcognitive declineinstrumental variable analysismediation analysissolanezumab

Identifiers

PMID41700142
PMCPMC12906369

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.