Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41699734›Full record

ArticleInjury epidemiology2026

A synthetic control study of the effects of comprehensive background check policies on non-fatal firearm crime in five states.

Amanda Charbonneau, Christopher McCort, Alex Kwong, Alexander D McCourt, Daniel Webster, Jon S Vernick, Garen Wintemute, Rose Kagawa

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Injury epidemiology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Amanda CharbonneauRAND, 1776 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA, 90401, USA. acharbon@rand.org.
Christopher McCortCenters for Violence Prevention, Department of Emergency Medicine / VPRP, University of California, Davis, 4150 V Street, Suite 2100, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA.
Alex KwongCenters for Violence Prevention, Department of Emergency Medicine / VPRP, University of California, Davis, 4150 V Street, Suite 2100, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA.
Alexander D McCourtDepartment of Health Policy and Management, Johns Hopkins University, 624 N. Broadway, Hampton House 580, Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA.
Daniel WebsterDepartment of Health Policy and Management, Johns Hopkins University, 624 N. Broadway, Hampton House 580, Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA.
Jon S VernickDepartment of Health Policy and Management, Johns Hopkins University, 624 N. Broadway, Hampton House 580, Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA.
Garen WintemuteCenters for Violence Prevention, Department of Emergency Medicine / VPRP, University of California, Davis, 4150 V Street, Suite 2100, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA.
Rose KagawaCenters for Violence Prevention, Department of Emergency Medicine / VPRP, University of California, Davis, 4150 V Street, Suite 2100, Sacramento, CA, 95817, USA.

Funding

National Collaborative on Gun Violence Research A20-3877
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundResearch on the effectiveness of comprehensive background check requirements for firearm purchases often finds individual-level associations that do not translate to the population level. However, few studies assess the effects of these policies on nonfatal firearm violence.

methodsFirst, several imputation strategies were compared to mitigate the effects of systematic missingness of crime data reported to the Federal Bureau of Investigation by law enforcement agencies. Next, the imputed data and the augmented synthetic control method, adapted for multiple treated units, were used to estimate the effects of implementing comprehensive background check policies on nonfatal firearm violence in five states. The study period began 15 years prior to the enactment date for each state and extended through 2020.

resultsThe results were largely null across multiple specifications and sensitivity analyses.

conclusionsBackground checks are central to many firearm policies in the United States, yet several studies, including this one, do not detect an association between comprehensive background check policies and state-level firearm violence rates. These findings highlight the need to understand how the design, implementation, and enforcement of these laws can be improved.

Indexed as

Comprehensive background checksFirearm crimeFirearm policy

Identifiers

PMID41699734
PMCPMC13011692

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.