The end of the garden path? Analyzing smallholder tobacco farming income and decision-making in Mozambique.

Many government sectors view tobacco growing to hold significant economic value for smallholder farmers, a narrative driving policy and practice. Corresponding to this narrative, there has been a marked increase in land allocated to leaf production and cigarette manufacturing. We tested this narrative in Mozambique by quantifying the economic net income of smallholder tobacco growers (n = 1 315 households) in four major tobacco growing districts and compared income across four groups of tobacco farmers; persistent growers; persistent non-growers; new growers; and no-longer growers using panel survey data collected in 2019/2020 and 2020/2021. Overall, the economic net income was higher amongst those who were no-longer growers and non-growers. Relative to those who cultivated tobacco in 2020 but decided not to grow in 2021, a partnership contract with a leaf-buying company was strongly associated with continued growing of tobacco. The second factor associated with tobacco cultivation in both years was farmers’ use of hired labor, which is likely a function of the high labor intensity of the crop. These facts are important to inform further discussions on policy and programming pertaining to more robust rural livelihoods in Mozambique. These findings are consistent with a burgeoning literature from countries in Africa.