Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41678304›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2026

No evidence that haplodiploidy favors the evolution of eusociality.

Rosa Bonifacii, Louis Bell-Roberts, Alan Grafen, Stuart West

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Genome Evolution in Social Insects.Genome biology and evolution · 2026
    Review
  2. Haplodiploidy and the evolution of eusociality: A long-standing question is finally resolved.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Rosa BonifaciiDepartment of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3EL, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-3199-0452
Louis Bell-RobertsGeorgina Mace Centre for the Living Planet, Imperial College London, Ascot SL5 7PY, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-4035-8168
Alan GrafenDepartment of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3EL, United Kingdom.
Stuart WestDepartment of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3EL, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-2152-3153

Funding

EC | Horizon Europe | Excellent Science | HORIZON EUROPE European Research Council (ERC) 834134European Research Council 834164
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The potential role of haplodiploid sex determination in promoting the evolution of altruism and eusociality has been the subject of intense debate for over 50 y. Different theoretical models have suggested that haplodiploidy influences relatedness in a way that either does or does not make it easier for altruism to evolve. This debate over the "haplodiploidy hypothesis" can only be resolved with a decisive empirical test that controls for potential phylogenetic bias. Here we critically examine the current state of evidence for an adaptive link between haplodiploidy and eusociality, applying phylogenetically informed methods to ensure that statistical tests reflect independent evolutionary transitions. Using data from 5,678 species, across all major insect orders, we find no evidence that haplodiploidy favors an increased rate of eusocial evolution. We show that this result is robust to: a) different analytical approaches; b) alternative ways of defining both eusociality and haplodiploidy; and c) uncertainty in eusociality assignments. Our analyses suggest that previously reported associations between haplodiploidy and eusociality are likely to have been artifacts, false-positive results primarily driven by a high transition rate to eusociality within the Hymenoptera. This high transition rate could be explained by any factor associated with that group, such as parental care, monogamy, or the possession of a powerful sting.

Indexed as

Biological EvolutionDiploidyHaploidyInsectaSocial BehaviorAnimalsModels, GeneticPhylogenyeusocialityhaplodiploidyinsectsphylogenetic pseudoreplicationsocial evolution

Identifiers

PMID41678304
PMCPMC12913003

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.