ArticleTranslational cancer research2026
Toward individualized prognosis in primary breast diffuse large B-cell lymphoma: incidence trends and a predictive model.
Article in Translational cancer research, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: Primary breast diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (PB-DLBCL) is a rare malignancy with limited population-level prognostic data. We aimed to characterize incidence trends, estimate dynamic conditional survival (CS), and develop a prognostic model for overall survival (OS) using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data. Methods: We identified 792 patients with PB-DLBCL from the SEER database (2000-2021). Age-adjusted incidence rates were calculated to assess trends over time. 10-year CS probabilities were estimated to evaluate dynamic survival patterns. The cohort was randomly divided into training (n=554) and validation (n=238) sets. Best subset regression (BSR) and stepwise backward Cox regression were applied to identify the most informative prognostic variables, which were incorporated into a CS-nomogram. Model performance was assessed using calibration plots, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, concordance index (C-index), and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: The age-adjusted incidence of PB-DLBCL remained stable over two decades, with no significant trend [annual percent change (APC) =-0.16%]. CS analysis revealed that patients who survived the first post-diagnosis year had progressively improved long-term survival probabilities (10-year CS: 49% at diagnosis Conclusions: PB-DLBCL showed stable incidence and dynamic improvement in survival among patients who surpassed early post-diagnosis milestones. Age, stage, and chemotherapy were key prognostic determinants. The CS-nomogram provided a practical, individualized tool for dynamic survival prediction and risk stratification, supporting personalized clinical decision-making in this rare lymphoma subtype.
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