Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41673021›Full record

ArticleNature communications2026

The human metabolome and machine learning improves predictions of the post-mortem interval.

Rasmus Magnusson, Carl Söderberg, Liam J Ward, Jenny Arpe, Fredrik C Kugelberg, Albert Elmsjö, Henrik Green, Elin Nyman

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Review
  3. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Rasmus MagnussonDepartment of Biomedical Engineering, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden. rasmus.magnusson@liu.se.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9395-6025
Carl SöderbergDepartment of Forensic Genetics and Forensic Toxicology, National Board of Forensic Medicine, Linköping, Sweden.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7074-6578
Liam J WardDepartment of Forensic Genetics and Forensic Toxicology, National Board of Forensic Medicine, Linköping, Sweden.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3320-1461
Jenny ArpeDepartment of Biomedical Engineering, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0001-1580-4752
Fredrik C KugelbergDepartment of Forensic Genetics and Forensic Toxicology, National Board of Forensic Medicine, Linköping, Sweden.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7886-631X
Albert ElmsjöDepartment of Forensic Genetics and Forensic Toxicology, National Board of Forensic Medicine, Linköping, Sweden.
Henrik Green *Department of Forensic Genetics and Forensic Toxicology, National Board of Forensic Medicine, Linköping, Sweden.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8015-5728
Elin Nyman *Department of Biomedical Engineering, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4261-0291

Funding

Stiftelsen Forska Utan Djurförsök (Swedish Fund for Research Without Animal Experiments) S2021-0008, F2022-02Vetenskapsrådet (Swedish Research Council) 2019-03767Vetenskapsrådet (Swedish Research Council) 2023-01407
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

An accurate prediction of the time since death, known as the post-mortem interval, remains a critical research question in forensic and police investigations. Current methods, such as rectal temperature and vitreous potassium levels, only provide reliable post-mortem interval estimations up to 1-3 days. In this study, we use metabolomic data from routine toxicological screenings using femoral whole blood samples (n=4876 individuals) with known post-mortem interval of 1-67 days. We develop a neural network model that predicts the post-mortem interval with a mean/median absolute error of 1.45/1.03 days in unseen test cases, outperforming six other machine learning architectures. Pseudo-time series clustering of important model features reveals distinct metabolite dynamics, including markers of lipid degradation, mitochondrial dysfunction, and proteolysis. To assess generalizability, we apply the trained model to independent test data (n = 512 individuals) collected in a different year and analyzed on a separate mass spectrometry platform. Despite cross-platform variability, the model retains predictive performance (mean/median absolute error 1.78/1.29 days). We further show that robust models can be trained using only a few hundred cases, supporting scalability. Our findings demonstrate that post-mortem metabolomics, even when derived from routine toxicological workflows, can enable accurate post-mortem interval predictions and may offer a transferable framework for future forensic applications.

Indexed as

Machine LearningMetabolomePostmortem ChangesFemaleHumansMetabolomicsNeural Networks, ComputerPredictive Learning ModelsTime Factors

Identifiers

PMID41673021
PMCPMC12894911

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.