ArticleNature communications2026
Multi-centennial internal variability in the North Atlantic could drive additional warming over Europe.
Article in Nature communications, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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9 authors.
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Abstract
Europe has experienced abnormal warming over the recent decades. Model-based studies highlight that multi-centennial internal variability of the North Atlantic can strongly affect European temperatures. However, the limited availability of high-resolution proxy records has hindered observational assessment of the existence and amplitude of such variability in the real climate system. Here, we compile annual-to-decadal proxy-based Holocene reconstructions, instrumental observations, and climate model simulations to demonstrate the existence of this multi-centennial variability mode and quantify its amplitude. We show that this mode is closely tied to the internal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Its temporal evolution explains part of the observed 20
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