Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41667400›Full record

ArticleThe American journal on addictions2026

Social media use, smoking expectancies, and nicotine experimentation in early adolescents: A prospective cohort study.

Jason M Nagata, Andrew Caffrey, Alexander Heuer, Keira Beltran Murillo, Christiane K Helmer, Isaac Frimpong, Colbey Ricklefs, Abubakr A Al-Shoaibi, Alexander Testa, Claire D Brindis and 2 more

Abstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in The American journal on addictions, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Jason M NagataDepartment of Pediatrics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6541-0604
Andrew CaffreyDepartment of Pediatrics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0006-3546-6056
Alexander HeuerDepartment of Pediatrics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0003-0582-3591
Keira Beltran MurilloDepartment of Pediatrics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0006-7151-3454
Christiane K HelmerDepartment of Pediatrics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0003-2935-382X
Isaac FrimpongDepartment of Pediatrics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0007-3012-1486
Colbey RicklefsDepartment of Pediatrics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0009-6214-8557
Abubakr A Al-ShoaibiDepartment of Pediatrics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6513-9984
Alexander TestaDepartment of Management, Policy and Community Health, University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, Texas, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8686-9115
Claire D BrindisDepartment of Pediatrics, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2284-3936
Glenn-Milo SantosDepartment of Community Health Systems, School of Nursing, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1009-5317
Fiona C BakerCenter for Health Sciences, SRI International, Menlo Park, California, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9602-6165

Funding

Investigating relationships between problematic social media use and binge-eating disorder to inform precision guidance for adolescentsRF1MH135492 · NIMH · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI NAGATA, JASON M · 2025 to 2025
$1.9M
Longitudinal pathways between adolescent social media use and substance use: Informing evidence-based guidanceR01DA064134 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI Jason M Nagata · 2025 to 2026
$1.5M
Investigating relationships between problematic social media use and binge-eating disorder to inform precision guidance for adolescentsR01MH135492 · NIMH · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI NAGATA, JASON M · 2023 to 2024
$1.0M
Informing national guidelines on adolescent and young adult physical activity and sedentary behavior to prevent cardiovascular diseaseK08HL159350 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI NAGATA, JASON M · 2021 to 2025
$869k
Doris Duke Charitable Foundation 2022056NHLBI NIH HHS K08 HL159350NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA064134NIH HHS K08HL1549350NIH HHS R01DA064134NIH HHS RF1MH135492NIMH NIH HHS R01 MH135492NIMH NIH HHS RF1 MH135492
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND

objectivesSocial media exposure may influence early nicotine experimentation, a behavior linked to later nicotine dependence and health risks. Few studies have examined the role of smoking expectancies (i.e., beliefs about the anticipated positive or negative effects of nicotine) as a pathway underlying this association, especially in early adolescence. The objective of this study is to examine the prospective association between social media use and nicotine experimentation in early adolescence, and whether smoking expectancies mediate this relationship.

methodsUsing longitudinal data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study (N = 8292; mean age 12.0 years at Year 2; 2018-2020), we estimated associations between social media time (Year 2) and nicotine experimentation (Year 4), adjusting for confounders and testing positive and negative smoking expectancies (Year 3) as mediators using generalized structural equation modeling.

resultsSocial media time at Year 2 was associated with nicotine experimentation at Year 4. Positive smoking expectancies (but not negative expectancies) were associated with nicotine experimentation. Positive smoking expectancies mediated 5.97% (95% CI: 1.27%-10.67%, p = .013) of the social media-nicotine experimentation association. DISCUSSION AND

conclusionsEarly social media exposure may be associated with favorable beliefs about nicotine, increasing adolescents' risk of experimentation. Regulatory policies, clinical screening, and prevention programs could mitigate early nicotine use. Future research should explore how these relationships evolve across adolescence. SCIENTIFIC SIGNIFICANCE: This study advances understanding of how social media use contributes to early nicotine experimentation in adolescents by identifying positive smoking expectancies as a potential pathway.

Indexed as

Adolescent BehaviorSmokingSocial MediaAdolescentChildFemaleHumansLongitudinal StudiesMaleMedia ExposureNicotineOutcome ExpectationsProspective StudiesNicotine

Identifiers

PMID41667400
PMCPMC12990385

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.