ArticlePloS one2026
Smallpox outbreak scenarios and reactive intervention protocols: A mathematical model-based analysis applied to the Republic of Korea.
Article in PloS one, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Smallpox, caused by the variola virus, remains a potential biosecurity threat despite its eradication. This study develops a mathematical model to evaluate outbreak scenarios and the effectiveness of reactive intervention strategies in controlling transmission, with application to the Republic of Korea. The model incorporates age-stratified contact patterns, contact tracing, and vaccination strategies, including targeted vaccination and mass vaccination. Our simulations demonstrate that early outbreak recognition and rapid intervention are critical in mitigating smallpox spread. In scenarios where vaccination rollout was slow or outbreak recognition was delayed, severe patient numbers exceeded healthcare capacity, highlighting the need for preemptive preparedness. Sensitivity analyses revealed that outbreak recognition timing and contact tracing effectiveness were the most influential factors in determining outbreak severity, with later recognition leading to up to 3.5 times more cumulative cases. Furthermore, we compared different vaccination prioritization strategies and found that prioritizing high-transmission age groups was more effective in reducing total mortality than prioritizing high-risk groups based solely on disease severity. This contrasts with COVID-19 vaccination strategies, which focused on protecting vulnerable populations. These findings underscore the importance of early detection, strategic vaccination, and non-pharmaceutical interventions in mitigating a potential smallpox outbreak. Our model provides a quantitative framework for policymakers to evaluate intervention effectiveness and optimize outbreak response strategies.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.