Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41663576›Full record

ArticleNature methods2026

Rate variation and recurrent sequence errors in pandemic-scale phylogenetics.

Nicola De Maio, Myrthe Willemsen, Samuel Martin, Zihao Guo, Abhratanu Saha, Martin Hunt, Nhan Ly-Trong, Bui Quang Minh, Zamin Iqbal, Nick Goldman

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature methods, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Highly Recurrent Multinucleotide Mutations in SARS-CoV-2.Molecular biology and evolution · 2025
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Addressing pandemic-wide systematic errors in the SARS-CoV-2 phylogeny.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2024
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Nicola De MaioEuropean Molecular Biology Laboratory, European Bioinformatics Institute, Cambridgeshire, UK. demaio@ebi.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1776-8564
Myrthe WillemsenEuropean Molecular Biology Laboratory, European Bioinformatics Institute, Cambridgeshire, UK.
Samuel MartinEuropean Molecular Biology Laboratory, European Bioinformatics Institute, Cambridgeshire, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6298-1014
Zihao GuoEuropean Molecular Biology Laboratory, European Bioinformatics Institute, Cambridgeshire, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4557-0395
Abhratanu SahaEuropean Molecular Biology Laboratory, European Bioinformatics Institute, Cambridgeshire, UK.
Martin HuntEuropean Molecular Biology Laboratory, European Bioinformatics Institute, Cambridgeshire, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8060-4335
Nhan Ly-TrongSchool of Computing, College of Engineering, Computing and Cybernetics, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5668-5027
Bui Quang MinhSchool of Computing, College of Engineering, Computing and Cybernetics, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5535-6560
Zamin IqbalEuropean Molecular Biology Laboratory, European Bioinformatics Institute, Cambridgeshire, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8466-7547
Nick GoldmanEuropean Molecular Biology Laboratory, European Bioinformatics Institute, Cambridgeshire, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8486-2211

Funding

RCUK | Medical Research Council (MRC) MR/Z503769/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Phylogenetic analyses of genome sequences from infectious pathogens reveal essential information regarding their evolution and transmission, as seen during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Recently developed pandemic-scale phylogenetic inference methods reduce the computational demand of phylogenetic reconstruction from genomic epidemiological datasets, allowing the analysis of millions of closely related genomes. However, widespread homoplasies, due to recurrent mutations and sequence errors, cause phylogenetic uncertainty and biases. We present algorithms and models to substantially improve the computational performance and accuracy of pandemic-scale phylogenetics. In particular, we account for, and identify, mutation rate variation and recurrent sequence errors. We reconstruct a reliable and public sequence alignment and phylogenetic tree of >2 million severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 genomes encapsulating the evolutionary history and global spread of the virus up to February 2023.

Indexed as

PhylogenyAlgorithmsCOVID-19Evolution, MolecularGenome, ViralHumansMutation RatePandemicsSARS-CoV-2Sequence Alignment

Identifiers

PMID41663576
PMCPMC12982120

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.