Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41663383›Full record

ArticleNature communications2026

Assessing HPAI-H5 transmission risk across wild bird migratory flyways in the United States.

Kang Fang, Jiahui Li, Hongfeng Zhao, Jiangshaya Bahati, Zeyu Zhao, Wentao Song, Tianmu Chen

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Kang FangState Key Laboratory of Vaccines for Infectious Diseases, Xiang An Biomedicine Laboratory, National Innovation Platform for Industry-Education Integration in Vaccine Research, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, China.
Jiahui LiState Key Laboratory of Vaccines for Infectious Diseases, Xiang An Biomedicine Laboratory, National Innovation Platform for Industry-Education Integration in Vaccine Research, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, China.
Hongfeng ZhaoState Key Laboratory of Vaccines for Infectious Diseases, Xiang An Biomedicine Laboratory, National Innovation Platform for Industry-Education Integration in Vaccine Research, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, China.
Jiangshaya BahatiState Key Laboratory of Vaccines for Infectious Diseases, Xiang An Biomedicine Laboratory, National Innovation Platform for Industry-Education Integration in Vaccine Research, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, China.
Zeyu ZhaoState Key Laboratory of Vaccines for Infectious Diseases, Xiang An Biomedicine Laboratory, National Innovation Platform for Industry-Education Integration in Vaccine Research, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, China. zhaozeyu234@xmu.edu.cn.
Wentao SongJiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Prevention and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Jiangxi Medical Center for Critical Public Health Events, the First Affiliated Hospital, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, China. xmuswt@qq.com.
Tianmu ChenState Key Laboratory of Vaccines for Infectious Diseases, Xiang An Biomedicine Laboratory, National Innovation Platform for Industry-Education Integration in Vaccine Research, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, China. chentianmu@xmu.edu.cn.ORCID 0000-0003-0710-5086

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

As natural hosts of avian influenza viruses, wild birds pose an increasing threat to public health. Here, using surveillance data from wild bird infections across the United States (2022-2025), we show that HPAI-H5 transmission exhibits strong interspecific variation, seasonality, and spatial heterogeneity linked to migratory flyways. Phylogeographic analysis reveals that viral genotypes evolve from early, limited transmission along single migratory routes to a nationwide dispersal pattern spanning multiple migratory flyways. Anseriformes exhibits the highest number of infections but the lowest transmission risk, whereas Strigiformes demonstrates the greatest transmission risk. The HPAI-H5 transmission in wild birds along migratory flyways exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity and is associated with bird migration. Meteorological conditions are correlated with outbreak timing and may inform early warning efforts; however, these relationships are nonlinear. These findings provide a foundation for risk assessment, early warning systems, and integrated management of avian influenza in wild bird populations.

Indexed as

Animal MigrationAnimals, WildBirdsInfluenza A Virus, H5N1 SubtypeInfluenza in BirdsAnimalsDisease OutbreaksGenotypePhylogenyPhylogeographyRisk AssessmentSeasonsUnited States

Identifiers

PMID41663383
PMCPMC12996331

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.