Differentiated carbon reduction effects of clean heating policies: evidence from pilot projects in Northern China.

As a far-reaching initiative in China's air pollution control and energy transition efforts, the clean heating policy has sparked considerable debate in both academia and practice regarding its effectiveness in reducing carbon emissions. This study uses panel data from 15 prefecture-level cities in northern China from 2013 to 2023 and constructs a multi-period difference-in-differences model to empirically examine the impact of the clean heating policy on regional carbon emissions. The results are summarized as follows: (1) The policy effectively promotes the reduction of regional unit GDP and per capita carbon emission intensity in Northern China, but it has no evident effect on regional total carbon emissions. (2) The policy can exert the multiplier effect of the central government funds and structural effect to facilitate regional low-carbon transformation, but no significant Porter effect has been observed. (3) The carbon reduction effects exhibit significant regional heterogeneity. The policy has a more significant effect on carbon emissions of nonprovincial capital cities, coal-resource cities, and regions without coal power output, but it may significantly increase emissions in coal power-exporting regions. The clean heating policy should continue to be vigorously implemented, but its implementation strategy should be optimized by strengthening the transmission mechanism and addressing regional differences.