Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41652355›Full record

SynthesisBMC public health2026

System dynamics modelling methods for public health policy evaluation: a systematic literature review focussing on mental health and substance use disorders.

Hendrika J Valkenburg, Jasper Ten Dam, Sjoukje van der Werf, Talitha L Feenstra, Jeroen Rodenburg, Ben F M Wijnen

Abstract readSystematic Review
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Synthesis in BMC public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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0citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

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3 · Its place in the literature

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0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Hendrika J ValkenburgDepartment of Statistics Data Science and Modelling, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands. hanneke.valkenburg@rivm.nl.
Jasper Ten DamDepartment of Statistics Data Science and Modelling, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
Sjoukje van der WerfMedical Library, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands.
Talitha L FeenstraFaculty of Science and Engineering, University of Groningen, Groningen Research Institute of Pharmacy, Groningen, the Netherlands.
Jeroen RodenburgDepartment of Statistics Data Science and Modelling, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands.
Ben F M WijnenCentre for Economic Evaluations & Machine Learning, Trimbos Institute, Netherlands Institute of Mental Health and Addiction, Utrecht, the Netherlands.

Funding

Strategic Program of the Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) S/133032/01
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIn public health, simulation models are important tools for policy evaluations, and the nature of the problems these models address is complex. System dynamics (SD) modelling is acknowledged as a methodology for complex systems, but there is limited insight in the development and application of SD models for noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and lifestyle-related risk factors. Therefore, this review investigates how these SD models are developed and utilised to project health outcomes and evaluate policy interventions.

methodsRelevant studies were identified through a systematic search strategy. Studies were selected based on eligibility criteria, and data were extracted in two phases: (1) extraction of study characteristics, and (2) detailed examination of applied methods for a subset of included studies focussing on mental health and substance use disorders. For the second phase, data extraction was stratified according to steps of the modelling cycle, and the reporting quality of each study was assessed.

resultsIn phase 1, 63 studies were included, mainly on mental health and substance use disorders (27%), obesity (17%), and diabetes (13%), with the number of studies increasing over time. In phase 2, 17 studies on mental health and substance use disorders were included. These studies commonly used dedicated software for SD modelling for the mathematical formulation and computerisation of their models. However, in 76% of these studies, the underlying mathematical equations were not shared, and in 82%, the models were not openly accessible. A (slight) majority of studies validated model outcomes against empirical data (65%), and performed sensitivity analysis (53%). Few studies reported model verification (18%) and face validation of model outcomes (18%).

conclusionsSD models are increasingly developed for NCDs and lifestyle-related risk factors, and particularly applied to mental health and substance use disorders. This review offers insights into applied techniques for developing SD models for mental health and substance use disorders, and shows that steps of the modelling cycle are reported on with considerable variation. Although studies frequently report on certain aspects of testing and validation, many report incompletely on other activities of the modelling cycle, and the models sometimes lack transparency. Improving this would enhance the credibility of SD modelling in public health.

Indexed as

Health PolicyMental DisordersMental HealthModels, TheoreticalPublic HealthSubstance-Related DisordersSystems AnalysisHumansMental healthPolicy evaluationProjectionPublic healthSimulation modellingSubstance use disordersSystematic reviewSystem dynamics modelling

Identifiers

PMID41652355
PMCPMC12977811

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.