Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41651827›Full record

ArticleNature communications2026

Ocean heat forced West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat after the Last Glacial Maximum.

Elaine M Mawbey, James A Smith, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, Katharine R Hendry, Erin L McClymont, Mervyn J Greaves, Johann P Klages, Gerhard Kuhn, Svetlana Radionovskaya, Charlotte L Spencer-Jones and 3 more

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Elaine M Mawbey *British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, UK.
James A Smith *British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, UK. jaas@bas.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1333-2544
Claus-Dieter HillenbrandBritish Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0240-7317
Katharine R HendryBritish Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0790-5895
Erin L McClymontDepartment of Geography, Durham University, Lower Mountjoy, South Road, Durham, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1562-8768
Mervyn J GreavesThe Godwin Laboratory for Palaeoclimate Research, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8014-8627
Johann P KlagesAlfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Am Alten Hafen 26, Bremerhaven, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0968-1183
Gerhard KuhnAlfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Am Alten Hafen 26, Bremerhaven, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6069-7485
Svetlana RadionovskayaBritish Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0009-9109-1596
Charlotte L Spencer-JonesDepartment of Geography, Durham University, Lower Mountjoy, South Road, Durham, UK.
Robert D LarterBritish Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8414-7389
Julia S WellnerDepartment of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Houston, Houston, TX, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6807-8635
Pierre DutrieuxBritish Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8066-934X

Funding

National Science Foundation (NSF) 173894RCUK | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) NE/M013081/1RCUK | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) NE/S006664/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is thinning at an accelerating rate, driven by melting at its margins by warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW). However, this understanding is largely based on observations from recent decades, leaving the long-term influence of ocean temperature on WAIS stability uncertain. Here we reconstruct bottom water temperatures and water mass properties over the past 18 kyr using benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca and δ¹³C records from sediment cores in the Amundsen Sea. Our data indicate that warm CDW occupied the continental shelf between ~ 18.0 and 10.1 kyr BP, coincident with major WAIS retreat from the shelf break to near its present-day grounding-line position along the Marie Byrd Land coast. Bottom waters cooled after ~ 10.1 kyr BP and remained relatively stable thereafter, with no evidence for substantial grounding-line migration. Continued atmospheric warming across West Antarctica until a mid-Holocene thermal maximum (~6-3 kyr BP) without further retreat indicates that ocean heat was the primary driver of WAIS variability since the Last Glacial Maximum.

Identifiers

PMID41651827
PMCPMC12953795

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.