Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41646772›Full record

ArticlemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2026

Yellow fever re-emergence in Tolima, Colombia 2024-25: an eco-epidemiological study.

Seth D Judson, Nicole Stephan, Sofia Machuca, Andrés F Henao-Martínez, Gabriel Parra-Henao, Ricardo Vivas, Jose Fair Alarcón-Robayo, Mauricio Javier Vera Soto, Hernán Vargas

Abstract readPreprint
In one paragraph

Article in medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Seth D JudsonDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at University of California, Los Angeles, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-9911-7839
Nicole StephanDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at University of California, Los Angeles, USA.
Sofia MachucaDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at University of California, Los Angeles, USA.
Andrés F Henao-MartínezDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-7363-8652
Gabriel Parra-HenaoCentro de Investigación en Salud para el Trópico, Universidad Cooperativa de Colombia, Santa Marta, Colombia.ORCID 0000-0003-4535-6521
Ricardo VivasDirección de Salud Pública, Secretaria de Salud del Tolima, Colombia.
Jose Fair Alarcón-RobayoDirección de Salud Pública, Secretaria de Salud del Tolima, Colombia.
Mauricio Javier Vera SotoSubdirección de Enfermedades Transmisibles, Ministerio de Salud y Protección Social, Bogotá, Colombia.ORCID 0009-0003-7659-0836
Hernán VargasDirección de Salud Pública, Secretaria de Salud del Tolima, Colombia.

Funding

Improving early detection of yellow fever outbreaks: predicting risk and assessing diagnostic strategies in GhanaK08AI190125 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI Seth David Judson · 2025 to 2026
$395k
NIAID NIH HHS K08 AI190125
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Yellow fever virus (YFV) is transmitted by mosquitoes among humans and non-human primates (NHPs) in South America. The 2024-25 yellow fever (YF) outbreak was notable for its spread into new areas, including the department of Tolima in Colombia's Andean region. We investigated the eco-epidemiology of human and NHP YF cases to understand the patterns and drivers of the Tolima outbreak. Methods: We collected spatiotemporal, sociodemographic, and mortality data on human YF cases in Tolima, as well as the locations of deceased NHPs with YF. We then conducted exploratory, descriptive, and spatial statistical analyses to identify risk factors and hotspots for YF. We then used inferential spatiotemporal modelling to compare ecological and sociodemographic drivers. Findings: From September 2024 to October 2025, 116 human and 53 non-human primate YF cases were detected in Tolima. Among the human cases, 77% were male (89/116), and the median age was 47 (interquartile range 34-63). Of these cases, 45 (39%) died, and older age was associated with increased odds of death (adjusted odds ratio, 1.34 per 10 years; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-1.65). There was significant clustering among human and NHP cases. Higher rainfall and poverty/deprivation were associated with increased YF incidence at the neighborhood level, and rainfall during the outbreak was above average due to La Niña. Interpretation: These findings demonstrate significant mortality from YF, which re-emerged in Tolima after nearly a century. Rural populations with greater ecological risk and poverty/deprivation could benefit from targeted vaccination strategies for YF. Funding: National Institutes of Health.

Identifiers

PMID41646772
PMCPMC12870657

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.