ArticleThe journal of climate change and health
Climate extremes, average conditions and temperature variability as drivers of dengue epidemics in a temperate city of Argentina.
Article in The journal of climate change and health. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- A socio-hydro-epidemiological model for simulating trade-off between dengue infections, water shortages, and adaptive behavior.iScience · 2026Article
- Spatio-temporal forecasting of dengue in the Americas through hybrid mechanistic and data-driven models: Systematic review and meta-analysis.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Review
- Assessing environmental and climatic predictors of dengue fever in Santa Marta, Colombia: implications for One Health surveillance.Science in One Health · 2026Article
- Modeling the impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the dynamics of dengue outbreaks in Argentina between 2018 and 2024.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Strain-specific quantification ofFrontiers in insect science · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Introduction: Climate change represents one of the greatest health threats of our time, and is associated with the expansion of mosquito-borne viruses globally. Argentina has experienced long-term changes in precipitation and temperature, enhancing the climatic suitability for dengue transmission. This study assesses climate extremes, average climate conditions, and temperature variability and their relationships with dengue epidemics in a city with temperate climate in central Argentina. Methods: A set of descriptive indices for temperature and precipitation extremes was analyzed to detect long-term changes and variability in climate extremes from 1940 to 2022, as well as temperature variability during major dengue epidemics in 2020 and 2023. To evaluate the influence of the climate on epidemics, time series of cases and climatic variables were analyzed, generalized linear models were applied, and a mathematical model was used to estimate the number of days required for the transmission of the dengue virus. Results: Some climate extreme indices may influence the increase in dengue cases in the city of Reconquista. Average temperature and precipitation were noted to shape the seasonality and temporality (onset, development, and end) of the dengue epidemics. Temperature variability has impacted the extrinsic incubation period, thereby shaping the magnitude and duration of the dengue epidemics. Conclusion: The analysis of long-term climate data reveals that rising temperatures and some associated extremes are significant factors driving this trend, with implications for public health preparedness and response. We emphasize the necessity for enhancing monitoring systems, encompassing epidemiological, climatic, and vector variables, to mitigate the impacts of future epidemics.
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